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A Look At Criteo (CRTO) Valuation After Recent Short Term Share Price Rebound

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Criteo (CRTO) recently attracted investor attention as its shares closed at US$20.98, with mixed short term performance that contrasts with weaker total returns over the past year and 3 years.

See our latest analysis for Criteo.

For Criteo, a recent 1 day share price return of 3.86% at US$20.98 sits against a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 46.01%, suggesting short term momentum is building while longer term performance has been weak.

If this kind of rebound interests you, it could be a good moment to widen your search and check out high growth tech and AI stocks as potential next ideas.

With Criteo trading at US$20.98 against an average analyst price target of US$35.92 and an indicated intrinsic discount of around 82%, you have to ask whether this represents a genuine opportunity or whether the market is already pricing in its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 41.6% Undervalued

With Criteo last closing at US$20.98 against a narrative fair value of about US$35.92, the current gap is driven by specific revenue and margin expectations rather than market sentiment alone.

The rapid adoption of AI-powered ad targeting and the development of Agentic AI solutions leveraging Criteo's structured commerce data is expected to boost campaign performance and unlock new monetization channels, supporting both revenue growth and potential margin expansion as productized, automated offerings gain scale.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what earnings profile could back up this valuation gap? The narrative leans on shifting revenue mix and higher margins, plus a future earnings multiple below many media peers. The full story joins these moving parts into one clear fair value line.

Result: Fair Value of $35.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you also need to weigh the possibility that tougher competition from larger ad platforms and slower client onboarding could limit revenue growth and pressure margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Criteo narrative.

Build Your Own Criteo Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or if you prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can build a full Criteo narrative in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Criteo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Criteo has caught your eye, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas that match how you like to invest.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.