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How Investors May Respond To Republic Services (RSG) New Illinois Landfill Gas-to-RNG Facility Launch

Simply Wall St · 5d ago
  • Ameresco and Republic Services recently brought a renewable natural gas facility online at the Upper Rock Island County Landfill in East Moline, Illinois, upgrading landfill gas into pipeline-quality fuel capable of processing 2,000 standard cubic feet per minute and producing more than 500,000 Dekatherms annually.
  • As the 16th joint project between the two companies, this facility strengthens Republic Services’ biogas reuse efforts and supports Illinois’ long-term clean energy targets while cutting emissions comparable to the carbon captured by a very large area of forest.
  • We’ll now explore how this expanded landfill gas-to-RNG capacity could influence Republic Services’ investment narrative around sustainability-driven growth.

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Republic Services Investment Narrative Recap

To own Republic Services, you need to be comfortable with a steady, capital intensive waste and recycling business that is leaning into sustainability projects for incremental growth. The new East Moline RNG facility fits this story, but its impact on near term results and on the key risk of soft cyclical volumes and contract pruning looks limited, given ongoing guidance toward the low end of the revenue range.

The most relevant recent announcement, in my view, is management’s confirmation that 2025 guidance sits near the low end of the prior revenue range, even as Republic continues to expand RNG capacity. That combination ties the RNG build out directly to the central catalyst of sustainability driven initiatives supporting earnings, while reminding investors that execution and end market softness can still weigh on reported growth.

Yet behind this push into renewable natural gas, investors should be aware that cyclical volume softness and underperforming contracts could still...

Read the full narrative on Republic Services (it's free!)

Republic Services' narrative projects $19.3 billion revenue and $2.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.6 billion earnings increase from $2.1 billion today.

Uncover how Republic Services' forecasts yield a $247.00 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

RSG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
RSG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster between US$239.74 and US$256.18, showing how differently individual investors can view Republic Services. Against that backdrop, the company’s push into renewable natural gas projects adds another layer of complexity to how you might think about its future earnings resilience and risks.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Republic Services - why the stock might be worth just $239.74!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.