From Venezuela to the Panama Canal and Greenland prediction markets are betting nearly $2.5 million on the Trump administration's subsequent military action!

The Zhitong Finance App learned that traders in the prediction market are increasing their bets, believing that after US President Trump launches a raid on Venezuela, there may be more international turmoil in the future. On these prediction platforms, traders have recently begun to focus their attention on where the White House might next invest their money. As Wall Street and ordinary Americans notice that the Trump administration is shifting to a faster and tougher international crackdown, these bets are clearly heating up.

Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere wrote in a report to clients on Monday: “The most important conclusion for investors is that Trump has become more comfortable and more confident in using military power. The first year of his second term was characterized by a high level of energy and an appetite for high risk, and this characteristic now extends to the use of military operations.”

On the prediction market Kalshi, the probability that Trump will “take back the Panama Canal” by the beginning of 2029 has jumped to over 35%, compared to less than 30% last weekend. Trump said last year that he would not rule out using military force to regain control of this important waterway connecting the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, the probability of the US “controlling any part of Greenland” rose to 38% at noon on Tuesday, up about 8 percentage points from the middle of last week, and once soared to over 46% last weekend. On the Kalshi platform, the total amount of bets on these two questions is close to $2.5 million. Another larger market based on bet amounts shows that Trump's probability of “buying at least part” of Greenland hovers around 25%, up from less than 20% last weekend.

According to reports, on Tuesday local time, a senior US official said that Trump and his team are discussing various plans to acquire Greenland, including purchasing the territory from Denmark and establishing a free association agreement with Greenland. Military measures are also listed as one of the options. The official said Trump hopes to complete the acquisition of Greenland during his current term, and said the issue “will not go away.” The White House sees the acquisition of Greenland as a national security priority, and despite opposition from some NATO leaders, Trump is actively seeking an agreement.

Since taking office in 2025, Trump has repeatedly threatened to gain Greenland and has claimed that the possibility of using force is not ruled out. In an interview earlier this month, Trump said that Venezuela will probably not be the last country the US interferes with, adding that “we definitely need Greenland.”

Trump's remarks sparked strong opposition from Denmark and other European countries. Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement on January 6, stressing that Greenland belongs to its people and that only Denmark and Greenland have the right to decide matters involving themselves. Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of European affairs at Eurasia Group, said that after Trump's latest statement, the Danish government has entered a “full-scale crisis mode.”

Furthermore, on the Polymarket platform, a number of new prediction markets have also appeared in recent days, with bets amounting to tens of thousands of dollars in each market, relating to the possibility that the United States may launch an attack on Colombia or invade Cuba. Trump has previously threatened these two countries. Meanwhile, on the Kalshi platform, bettors began predicting this weekend whether Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will step down before next year. The probability of this event occurring is currently around 54%, and the relevant market size is close to $1 million. Trump approved the bombing of Iran last year, drawing the US into the conflict between Iran and Israel. Last week, Trump threatened that if Iran tried to rebuild its nuclear program, the US would “hit hard” each other.