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Assessing BlackRock (BLK) Valuation After Mixed Short-Term Moves And A 15.7% One-Year Return

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

BlackRock stock at a glance after recent performance

BlackRock (BLK) has seen mixed share performance recently, with a 0.7% decline over the past day, a 2.7% gain over the past week, and a 4.5% decline over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for BlackRock.

At a share price of $1,112.28, BlackRock’s mixed recent share price returns, including a 3.7% 1 month gain alongside a 4.5% 3 month decline, contrast with a stronger 1 year total shareholder return of 15.7%. This suggests near term momentum has softened, while longer term holders have seen steadier outcomes.

If BlackRock’s moves have you reassessing your portfolio, it could be a good moment to look beyond large asset managers and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With BlackRock trading at $1,112.28 alongside a 15.7% 1-year total return and a value score of 1, investors may be considering whether the shares still offer upside or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 15.7% Undervalued

With BlackRock last closing at $1,112.28 and the most followed narrative fair value at about $1,319.33 per share, the story frames current pricing as a discount that hinges on future earnings power and higher fee revenue streams.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $1167.2 for BlackRock based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $1252.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1000.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is behind a higher earnings base, firmer margins, and a lower future P/E than many peers? The narrative leans on sustained revenue expansion, profitability improvement, and a specific discount rate to bridge today’s price to that fair value path.

Result: Fair Value of $1,319.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this depends on things going right, with fee pressure in core ETFs and the complexity of integrating new private market and AI infrastructure deals both capable of derailing that earnings path.

Find out about the key risks to this BlackRock narrative.

Another View: What Market Ratios Are Signaling

That 15.7% discount to the narrative fair value sits awkwardly next to where the market currently prices BlackRock. The shares trade on a P/E of 28.3x, compared with 25.7x for the US Capital Markets industry and a fair ratio of 19.7x for BlackRock itself.

Put simply, the stock carries a richer earnings multiple than the wider industry and well above the fair ratio the market could move toward, which points to valuation risk rather than a clear discount. The question is whether you think BlackRock’s earnings story is strong enough to keep that gap in place.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:BLK P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026
NYSE:BLK P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026

Build Your Own BlackRock Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BlackRock research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If BlackRock has sharpened your focus, do not stop there. Broaden your opportunity set by lining up fresh ideas that match how you like to invest.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.