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Assessing Venture Global (VG) Valuation After Recent Share Price Divergence

Simply Wall St · 6d ago

What is moving Venture Global right now?

With no single headline event in play, Venture Global (VG) is drawing attention mainly because its share price has moved differently over the past week, month and past 3 months, prompting fresh interest from value focused investors.

See our latest analysis for Venture Global.

At a share price of $6.96, Venture Global’s recent moves include a 1 day share price return of 1.90%, a 30 day share price return of 2.05%, and a 90 day share price return showing a 46.58% decline, which points to fading momentum over the shorter term, while the year to date share price return of a 1.14% decline keeps the longer term picture subdued.

If sharp swings in an individual name have your attention, it can be helpful to scan aerospace and defense stocks and see how other companies with different drivers are pricing in risk and opportunity right now.

With Venture Global trading at $6.96 and sitting at a large discount to analyst targets and intrinsic estimates, the key question is whether this reflects genuine undervaluation or if the market is already correctly pricing in its future growth potential.

Price-to-Earnings of 8.3x: Is it justified?

On a P/E of 8.3x at a last close of $6.96, Venture Global screens as undervalued compared with both its peers and the wider US Oil and Gas industry.

The P/E ratio tells you how much investors are paying today for each dollar of current earnings. This is particularly relevant for a business like Venture Global that is already generating profits rather than being purely pre earnings or concept stage.

Here, the company trades at 8.3x earnings while the peer average sits at 22x and the US Oil and Gas industry average is 13.2x. This wide gap suggests the market is pricing Venture Global's earnings at a discount. Our fair P/E estimate of 13.3x indicates a level the market could potentially move toward if sentiment or expectations shift closer to that fair ratio.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Venture Global

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 8.3x (UNDERVALUED)

However, you also need to watch for risks such as execution challenges on Gulf Coast projects and any shifts in LNG demand or pricing that could pressure earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Venture Global narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Model Say?

While the 8.3x P/E points to value, our DCF model paints an even starker picture, with an estimated fair value of $81.28 per share versus today’s $6.96. That gap suggests either a sizeable opportunity or that the DCF assumptions are far too optimistic. Which story do you trust more?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

VG Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
VG Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Venture Global for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 875 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Venture Global Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or would rather test your own assumptions, you can build a complete Venture Global story in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Venture Global research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas beyond Venture Global?

If Venture Global has sparked your interest, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist by scanning focused sets of stocks that match what you care about most.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.