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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Gains

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) has drawn fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock up 5.0% over the past week and 13.5% over the past month, prompting investors to reassess its fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

While the recent 7-day and 30-day share price returns of 7.07% and 13.54% suggest short term momentum, the 1-year total shareholder return decline of 23.57% points to a much weaker longer term picture that investors are still weighing.

If Marriott Vacations Worldwide has you rethinking where you want exposure, this could be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Marriott Vacations Worldwide trading at $62.54, close to the $64.00 analyst price target yet showing a 55% intrinsic discount, the real question is whether this reflects a genuine mispricing or a stock where the market is already accounting for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.3% Undervalued

With Marriott Vacations Worldwide last closing at $62.54 against a narrative fair value of $64, the current setup hinges on how investors view earnings power over the next few years.

Ongoing modernization initiatives, including advanced analytics, AI-based propensity models, expanded digital marketing channels, and automation, are expected to deliver $150M–$200M in incremental adjusted EBITDA run-rate benefits by the end of the next year, improving both revenue and margins. Leisure travel demand remains robust, with high occupancy rates (nearly 90%) and the company's focus on the upper-upscale customer segment (median income of $150,000+) providing stability and support for strong earnings even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen on revenue, earnings and valuation multiples for that fair value to stack up? The narrative lays out a very specific earnings path and a future P/E that sits well below many hospitality peers. The full story connects those assumptions to a required return of 12.5% and a tight gap between price and fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that fair value story could be challenged if slowing owner sales continue, or if rising credit losses and inventory costs squeeze margins more than expected.

Find out about the key risks to this Marriott Vacations Worldwide narrative.

Build Your Own Marriott Vacations Worldwide Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this storyline or simply prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a complete Marriott Vacations Worldwide view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Marriott Vacations Worldwide research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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If Marriott Vacations Worldwide is on your radar, this can be a useful time to widen your net and pressure test your thinking against other opportunities on Simply Wall St.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.