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A Look At Millrose Properties (MRP) Valuation As Recent Returns Lose Momentum

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Millrose Properties (MRP) is in focus after recent trading left the stock at a last close of $29.41, with short term returns under pressure and recent fundamentals giving investors more to weigh.

See our latest analysis for Millrose Properties.

That recent 1 day share price return of 1.41% and 30 day share price return of 7.25%, alongside a 90 day share price return of 10.03% and year to date share price return of 1.41%, points to momentum that has been fading rather than building. This may reflect shifting views on Millrose Properties' growth prospects and risk profile around the current US$29.41 share price.

If Millrose’s recent pullback has you reassessing opportunities in real estate and beyond, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Millrose posting recent share price declines alongside reported revenue of US$410.96m and net income of US$216.783m, the key question now is whether today’s US$29.41 price reflects a bargain or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Price-to-Earnings of 22.5x: Is it justified?

On a P/E of 22.5x at a US$29.41 share price, Millrose Properties screens as cheaper than both its peers and the wider US Specialized REITs group.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to earnings per share, so it reflects how much investors are paying today for each dollar of Millrose’s current earnings. For a real estate business that buys and develops residential land and recycles capital into new projects, earnings-based metrics are a common way investors benchmark value.

According to Simply Wall St’s checks, MRP is described as "good value" on several fronts. The current 22.5x P/E is lower than the peer average of 24x and below the US Specialized REITs industry average of 27.3x. This suggests the market is pricing Millrose’s earnings at a discount to similar companies. Compared with an estimated fair P/E of 48.1x, the current multiple is even more conservative. This indicates a large gap between what the regression-based fair ratio points to and where the market is currently willing to price the stock.

MRP is also flagged as trading at 26.2% below Simply Wall St’s estimate of fair value, with the SWS DCF model indicating a fair value of US$39.87 per share versus the present US$29.41. In addition, analysts are in good agreement that the stock is trading below their price targets, with commentary highlighting that MRP is trading below analyst price targets and that analysts expect the stock price to rise by 31.2% from current levels.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Millrose Properties

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 22.5x (UNDERVALUED)

However, recent 30 day and 90 day share price declines, alongside the real estate exposure in Millrose’s model, could quickly challenge any undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Millrose Properties narrative.

Another View: What If The Fair Ratio Is Right?

The P/E of 22.5x looks attractive against peers at 24x, the US Specialized REITs group at 27.3x, and a fair ratio of 48.1x. That gap points to potential upside, but it also leaves you asking whether the risk is that the share price moves up or the fair ratio comes down.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:MRP P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026
NYSE:MRP P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Millrose Properties for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 882 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Millrose Properties Narrative

If you look at these numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to shape your own view, you can build a personalised Millrose thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Millrose Properties research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

If Millrose has sparked your curiosity, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not looking back later wishing you had acted.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.