WEBULL

Assessing Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Valuation After Rebranding And New Autonomous Defense Orders

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Investor interest in Ondas Holdings (ONDS) has picked up after the company moved its headquarters to West Palm Beach, Florida, and announced fresh autonomous systems orders tied to defense and security customers.

See our latest analysis for Ondas Holdings.

Those headlines around the headquarters move, name change to Ondas Inc., new autonomous systems orders and the upcoming Investor Day have landed alongside sharp price moves, with a 39.38% 7 day share price return and a very large 1 year total shareholder return, which suggests momentum has been building recently.

If drone defense has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to see what else is taking off in tech and AI through high growth tech and AI stocks.

After a sharp 7 day gain of 39.38% and a very large 1 year total return, with revenue growing and the company still reporting losses, is Ondas now undervalued or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 9% Overvalued

With Ondas Holdings last closing at $12.53 against a widely followed fair value of $11.50, the narrative sees the current price as running ahead of fundamentals.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $2.5 for Ondas Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $3.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $2.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue ramp, margin shift and future earnings multiple need to line up to support that higher fair value? The full narrative breaks down the growth rates, the profit swing, and the valuation multiple that all have to work together for this story to hold.

Result: Fair Value of $11.50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh up that Ondas is running high operating expenses in comparison with a loss of about US$47.7 million and carries US$52 million in debt.

Find out about the key risks to this Ondas Holdings narrative.

Another View: DCF Points to Undervaluation

While the popular narrative sees Ondas as about 9% overvalued versus an $11.50 fair value, the SWS DCF model tells a different story. On that view, the recent $12.53 share price sits around 12.8% below an estimated fair value of $14.38. Which set of assumptions do you find more convincing?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ONDS Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
ONDS Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Ondas Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 880 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Ondas Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or just prefer running your own numbers, you can build and stress test a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ondas Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Ondas has sparked your interest, do not stop here. Use focused screeners to quickly surface other opportunities that suit your style and keep your watchlist fresh.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.