Fubon: China has a clear advantage in the AI competition, the Hang Seng Index is expected to reach 30,000 points in 2026

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Pan Guoguang, first vice president and head of the investment strategy and research department at Fubon Bank (Hong Kong), predicts that China's economy is stable, and that China is expected to win the artificial intelligence (AI) competition, technology stocks will drive the restoration of Hong Kong stock valuations. The Hang Seng Index has potential room to rise by 15 to 20%, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to test 30,000 points this year.

He pointed out that developing AI is not something that can be done with capital; it requires infrastructure, electricity, and key minerals, so he admits that the industry has now entered a resource war. In terms of power generation, China's current electricity generation is 1 times higher than that of the US, and the average electricity price for residents is only half that of the US. It is expected that China will continue to lead in electricity generation in the future, and there are advantages in rare earth resources among key minerals, so I am optimistic that China can win this competition.

In terms of US stocks, he pointed out that the trend of US stocks is one of President Trump's popularity indicators, but currently US stocks are highly valued. It is expected that before the US midterm elections, Trump will mainly promote the development of technology stocks. It is expected that before the US midterm elections, he will launch large-scale mixed fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to protect the stock and bond trend while trying his best to control the bubble. It is expected that S&P will increase by a high number of units in 2026, and the NASDAQ increase may reach double digits.

Pan Guoguang also estimated that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026. If negative factors occur in the economy and stock market, the number of interest rate cuts will even increase.

In terms of gold prices, he pointed out that in the foreign exchange reserves of central banks around the world, the share of gold has surpassed US debt. With rising demand, it is expected that the price of gold will break through 5,000 US dollars per ounce in mid-2026, while silver will have a chance to break through the 100 US dollar per ounce mark.