Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) will pay a dividend of $0.25 on the 23rd of January. Based on this payment, the dividend yield on the company's stock will be 2.6%, which is an attractive boost to shareholder returns.
Impressive dividend yields are good, but this doesn't matter much if the payments can't be sustained. Even in the absence of profits, Advance Auto Parts is paying a dividend. It is also not generating any free cash flow, we definitely have concerns when it comes to the sustainability of the dividend.
Analysts expect a massive rise in earnings per share in the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio will be 5.6%, which makes us pretty comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.
Check out our latest analysis for Advance Auto Parts
The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was $0.24 in 2016, and the most recent fiscal year payment was $1.00. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 15% over that duration. Despite the rapid growth in the dividend over the past number of years, we have seen the payments go down the past as well, so that makes us cautious.
Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Advance Auto Parts' EPS has fallen by approximately 64% per year during the past five years. Such rapid declines definitely have the potential to constrain dividend payments if the trend continues into the future. On the bright side, earnings are predicted to gain some ground over the next year, but until this turns into a pattern we wouldn't be feeling too comfortable.
Overall, while some might be pleased that the dividend wasn't cut, we think this may help Advance Auto Parts make more consistent payments in the future. The company seems to be stretching itself a bit to make such big payments, but it doesn't appear they can be consistent over time. The dividend doesn't inspire confidence that it will provide solid income in the future.
It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. For example, we've identified 2 warning signs for Advance Auto Parts (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing. Is Advance Auto Parts not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.