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Will Data-Center Deals and U.S. Incentives Reshape First Solar's (FSLR) Policy-Driven Advantage?

Simply Wall St · 5d ago
  • In early January 2026, First Solar drew fresh attention as sector-wide optimism, a new Intersect Power data-center partnership, and supportive U.S. incentives highlighted its role in utility-scale solar and thin-film module supply.
  • Beyond the headlines, the company’s U.S.-centric technology and manufacturing footprint stood out as a key beneficiary of policy-driven demand for domestically produced solar equipment.
  • With this backdrop of policy support and growing data-center demand, we’ll now assess how these developments influence First Solar’s investment narrative.

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First Solar Investment Narrative Recap

To own First Solar, you need to believe utility scale solar and thin film modules will keep playing a central role in U.S. clean energy buildout, supported by domestic manufacturing incentives. The recent sector rebound and Intersect Power data center partnership reinforce that policy support and large project demand remain the key near term catalyst, while dependence on U.S. incentives and regulatory interpretations still stands out as the biggest current risk.

Among recent announcements, the opening of First Solar’s US$1.1 billion vertically integrated Louisiana plant is especially relevant here, because it expands U.S. nameplate capacity and deepens the company’s eligibility for domestic manufacturing tax credits. That added capacity sits directly in the path of policy driven demand and growing grid scale and data center needs, but it also heightens First Solar’s exposure if U.S. clean energy incentives are reduced or reshaped.

Yet behind the sector optimism, investors should be aware that any change in U.S. manufacturing tax credits or import tariffs could...

Read the full narrative on First Solar (it's free!)

First Solar's narrative projects $7.0 billion revenue and $3.2 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how First Solar's forecasts yield a $271.61 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

FSLR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
FSLR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Twenty three members of the Simply Wall St Community see First Solar’s fair value between US$155.98 and US$324.22, underscoring how wide opinions can run. Set that against the company’s heavy reliance on U.S. policy support and you can see why it pays to weigh several different views on how durable those incentives may prove for future performance.

Explore 23 other fair value estimates on First Solar - why the stock might be worth 43% less than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.