Jibang Consulting: Due to production cuts during the Spring Festival, the supply and demand for LCD TV panels is expected to tighten in the first quarter of 2026

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the latest survey by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, since the Chinese Lunar New Year is approaching in February, the three major LCD TV panel manufacturers, including BOE (BOE, 000725.SZ), TCL CSOT (Huaxing), and HKC (Huike), are planning to stop production for 5 to 10 days for back-end module manufacturers to reduce labor costs and the risk of subsequent inventory increases. Front-end production lines will simultaneously cut production. It is estimated that the overall LCD TV panel utilization rate for the first quarter will drop 3.5 percentage points to 87.7% in the quarter, shifting supply and demand to a tight pattern.

On the supply side, in addition to the three major panel manufacturers planning to cut production during the Chinese Lunar New Year, there were originally fewer working days in February, which reduced the overall TV supply area by 3.8% per quarter. At the same time, due to China's recent announcement that it will continue to promote the trade-in policy, which will still provide a 15% subsidy for first-class energy efficiency TVs, and preparations driven by the 2026 FIFA soccer tournament will also begin in the first quarter, it is estimated that it will ease the decline in demand for TV panels in the off-season, with only a 1.8% quarterly reduction.

Looking ahead to 2026, TV panels will continue to implement the “gradual increase in size” strategy. However, oversized TV panels are affected by relatively weak demand and high base periods in some markets, and the growth rate is expected to slow down. Therefore, panel manufacturers hope to adjust their product portfolio this year to gradually shift market demand from small sizes such as 23.6 inches and 32 inches to larger sizes such as 43 inches and 50 inches. This structural shift will help boost the average size of TV panels and the overall required area.

According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's analysis, the international situation is still facing many variables and factors such as soaring memory prices, bringing uncertainty to subsequent demand for TV panels. How to improve production capacity scheduling and order acceptance flexibility to quickly respond to market changes will be the core issue for panel manufacturers in 2026. In the long run, when LCD TV panels lack additional production capacity and large-scale investment, this is a positive sign for panel prices and industrial health.