Assessing Hologic (HOLX) Valuation After Recent Short Term Share Price Momentum

Hologic (HOLX) stock has been drawing interest as investors revisit its business profile, which spans diagnostics, breast health, GYN surgical and skeletal health, while they reassess recent share performance and earnings fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Hologic.

At a recent share price of US$74.75, Hologic’s 90 day share price return of 9.38% contrasts with a more muted 1 year total shareholder return of 2.83% and slightly negative 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns. This suggests momentum has picked up only in the shorter term.

If Hologic has you looking more closely at healthcare, this is a good moment to widen your search with healthcare stocks as potential ideas for your watchlist.

With Hologic trading at US$74.75 and sitting close to some analyst targets yet suggesting a sizable intrinsic discount, the key question is whether the current price understates its earnings profile or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.3% Undervalued

The most followed narrative puts Hologic’s fair value at about US$76.50, only slightly above the last close of US$74.75, and builds a detailed earnings roadmap behind that gap.

Fair Value Estimate: Maintained at approximately $76.50 per share, aligning with the proposed takeout valuation and implying no material change in intrinsic value assumptions.

Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 5.0% annually, indicating a stable outlook for top line expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies paying only a small premium to today’s price? The narrative leans on steady revenue bridges, margin stability and a future earnings multiple that could be higher than some investors expect. The detailed math sits inside the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $76.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh up ongoing tariff costs and pressure in China. These factors could challenge the earnings path that underpins that modest undervaluation.

Find out about the key risks to this Hologic narrative.

Build Your Own Hologic Narrative

If you see the story differently, or prefer to test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a custom view in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Hologic research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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