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To own Alibaba today, you need to believe its twin pillars of commerce and AI plus cloud can justify heavy ongoing investment and margin pressure, while it manages regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty in China. The new Amap 3D visualization tool supports the near term AI and cloud catalyst by showing practical, merchant facing use cases, but does not materially change the biggest current risk, which is whether these large AI and cloud outlays can translate into attractive returns.
Among recent developments, Alibaba Cloud’s reported triple digit growth in AI related revenue is the most relevant, because it underpins the investment case that AI workloads can eventually offset weaker margins in other segments. The Amap virtual tour initiative slots into this same narrative by bringing Alibaba’s generative AI models directly into local services, linking user engagement, cloud usage and potential monetization in a way investors can track over time.
Yet, behind Alibaba’s AI push, investors still need to weigh the risk that heavy AI and cloud spending could...
Read the full narrative on Alibaba Group Holding (it's free!)
Alibaba Group Holding's narrative projects CN¥1,260.3 billion revenue and CN¥171.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.0% yearly revenue growth and a CN¥22.8 billion earnings increase from CN¥148.3 billion today.
Uncover how Alibaba Group Holding's forecasts yield a $198.04 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.
The Simply Wall St Community’s 74 fair value estimates for Alibaba span roughly US$107 to US$268 per share, reflecting a wide range of individual expectations. You can weigh those views against the central question of whether Alibaba’s large scale AI and cloud investments can justify ongoing margin pressure and shape its long term earnings profile.
Explore 74 other fair value estimates on Alibaba Group Holding - why the stock might be worth 31% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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