Morning Star: Sheng Nongfu Spring (09633)'s net profit in 2025-26 to 3%-5%. The non-water beverage category will become a new driving force for growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morningstar released a research report saying that Nongfu Spring (09633) has maintained its leading position in the packaged water market with an expandable production and distribution network, while expanding into non-water beverages such as ready-to-drink tea and juice. The bank raised Nongfu Spring's 2025-2026 net profit forecast by 3%-5%. It is expected that the group's packaged water business will resume sales momentum after the brand faces negative online public opinion in 2024. Non-water beverage business growth will maintain a strong double-digit trend in 2025.

Benefiting from strong product differentiation and channel expansion, the bank expects Nongfu Spring's ready-to-drink tea business sales to increase 20% year-on-year in the second half of 2025. Furthermore, the bank raised the year-on-year growth forecast for packaged water sales in Nongfu Spring in the second half of 2025 from 9% to 14%, and the group is expected to seize market share from peers. Its distribution network remains strong, and strong support from channel partners will drive sales growth.

Looking ahead, Nongfu Spring has expanded its ready-to-drink tea product portfolio from a sugar-free series to sugar-containing bubble products, which the bank believes will further drive sales growth in the next few years. At the same time, it is believed that other non-water beverage categories, such as ready-to-drink juice and coffee, will become a new driving force for revenue and profit growth.