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A Look At Graphic Packaging (GPK) Valuation As Cost Savings And Waco Startup Take Shape

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) is back in focus after the company outlined a cost savings program targeting about $60 million a year, alongside accelerated inventory reduction and an early startup of its Waco, Texas recycled paperboard facility.

See our latest analysis for Graphic Packaging Holding.

At a share price of $15.45, Graphic Packaging’s recent 1-day share price return of 1.98% and 7-day share price return of 2.05% sit against a 90-day share price return decline of 17.78% and a 1-year total shareholder return decline of 40.51%. This suggests sentiment has been weak even as cost savings and the Waco facility startup give investors fresh information to reassess expectations.

If you are weighing what else might fit into your watchlist after GPK’s restructuring update, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other potential ideas.

With GPK trading at $15.45, a value score of 6, and a reported intrinsic discount of about 59%, the key question is whether this gap hints at mispricing or if the market already sees limited future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 22.3% Undervalued

With Graphic Packaging Holding last closing at $15.45 and the most followed narrative putting fair value near $19.89, there is a clear valuation gap to unpack.

The company expects a sharp increase in free cash flow from 2026 onward, with capital expenditures dropping and operational efficiency gains from new capacity, enabling both debt reduction and large-scale share repurchases that can accelerate EPS growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that cash flow ramp and buyback plan? The narrative leans heavily on earnings, margins, and a future P/E that undercuts the wider packaging group. Curious which assumptions really carry the fair value call?

Result: Fair Value of $19.89 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer containers and packaging demand and higher capital spending, including Waco cost overruns, could squeeze margins and put those cash flow and buyback hopes under pressure.

Find out about the key risks to this Graphic Packaging Holding narrative.

Build Your Own Graphic Packaging Holding Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a fresh view in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Graphic Packaging Holding research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.