China Post Securities: Solar and thermal are expected to be re-priced in the marketization of electricity and are expected to become a competitive new energy industry

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that the country issued a policy to promote large-scale development of photothermal power generation, with a target of 15 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2030, achieving electricity costs comparable to coal-fired electricity. Photothermal power generation has both power generation and long-term energy storage functions. It can obtain value in the capacity market and auxiliary service market, and obtain a green premium through channels such as CCER. China's industrial chain is mature, costs continue to fall, and it is expected to become a competitive new energy industry.

China Post Securities's main views are as follows:

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On December 23, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued “Certain Opinions on Promoting the Large-scale Development of Photothermal Power Generation”. By 2030, the total installed capacity of photothermal power generation will reach about 15 million kilowatts. The cost of electricity is basically the same as that of coal power, making it a new industry with an international competitive advantage in the field of new energy.

The photovoltaic industry chain has potential for development

At present, China has successfully mastered mainstream photothermal power generation technologies such as towers, troughs, and Fresnel, and has built the world's leading photothermal power generation industry chain. The construction cost per kilowatt of power plants has dropped from about 30,000 yuan 10 years ago to 15,000 yuan, and the cost of electricity has dropped to around 0.6 yuan. With policy support, relying on economies of scale and technological progress, its energy cost (electricity cost) is expected to be on par with coal power, and can be used as a supporting energy source in some regions.

The capacity market treats any technology the same

Photothermal power generation has the dual functions of peak-shifting power supply and long-term energy storage. It can use new energy to regulate and support new energy, and can provide long-term peak shifting capacity and rotational inertia for power systems, so it should be priced in the capacity market and auxiliary service market. The document suggests (1) that eligible photothermal power generation capacity can be compensated according to reliable capacity, encouraging relevant provinces to explore and establish reliable capacity assessment methods for photothermal power plants, and connect with relevant national requirements after the country establishes a reliable capacity compensation mechanism; (2) supporting photothermal power generation to actively participate in various auxiliary service markets and obtain benefits.

The green premium for light and heat is probably better

Theoretically, the value of CCER is the same as the green certificate, which also reduces carbon, but CCER is expected to obtain a higher premium as the global carbon market is gradually established, and photothermal power plants can choose CCER as their source of green revenue.

Investment advice: It is recommended to focus on Xizi Clean Energy.

Risk warning: the risk that policy support falls short of expectations, and the risk that technological progress in the industrial chain falls short of expectations.