Bank of China International's 2026 Machinery and Equipment Industry Strategy: Focus on Technological Growth and Develop a New Era of Intelligent Manufacturing

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Bank of China International released a research report saying that the “15th Five-Year Plan” continues to lean towards high-end manufacturing and looks forward to 2026. As the beginning year of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” the bank recognizes that in the context where domestic and foreign demand recovery is still under pressure, structural technological growth is expected to become the core driving force through the cycle, focusing on investment opportunities brought by hard technology sectors such as controlled nuclear fusion, liquid cooling, solid state battery equipment, and humanoid robots, to maintain the industry's stronger rating than the market.

Bank of China International's main views are as follows:

Controlled nuclear fusion: 25 years in the first year of domestic tenders, accelerated commercialization to seize definitive opportunities

Nuclear fusion is regarded as the ultimate energy ideal for humans due to its outstanding advantages of abundant fuel resources, high energy density, cleanliness and high safety. Currently, the commercial application of controlled nuclear fusion has entered the engineering feasibility verification stage. With continuous breakthroughs in superconductivity, AI and other technologies, and increased attention and investment from domestic and foreign governments, controllable nuclear fusion is being commercialized at an accelerated pace. Entering the second half of 2025, on the one hand, controlled nuclear fusion was included in the “15th Five-Year Plan” plan proposal; on the other hand, the BEST project achieved a key breakthrough on October 1. The key component of the main engine, the Dewar base, was successfully developed and successfully delivered, and large-scale tenders began in the fourth quarter. China's controlled nuclear fusion construction has entered a new stage.

Liquid cooling: a new era of AI computing power, helping increase demand for liquid cooling

On the one hand, with the advent of the artificial intelligence era, the demand for computing power continues to increase, driving the power of a single chip and the power density of server racks to rise rapidly, which has already reached the heat dissipation limit of traditional air cooling; on the other hand, related policies are continuously tightening the PUE requirements for data centers. Therefore, driven by both industry and policy, liquid cooling has become an inevitable development direction for AI servers and data centers in the future, and the market size is expected to increase rapidly. Currently, considering technical maturity and deployment costs, cold plate liquid cooling is the mainstream solution. Among them, liquid cooling plates, as one of the main core components, are developing towards microchannel liquid cooling plates with stronger heat dissipation capacity, bringing opportunities for new technologies such as 3D printing.

Lithium battery equipment: capital expenditure returns to the upward cycle, solid state battery 0-1 equipment is expected to benefit early

Increased demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage is driving demand for lithium batteries to remain strong. The capacity utilization rate and capital expenditure of major battery manufacturers have returned to an upward cycle, and the industry is beginning a new round of capacity expansion, driving the lithium battery equipment industry's difficult situation to reverse. In addition, solid-state batteries have advantages such as wide temperature operation, safety, high energy density, and small size. Various battery manufacturers plan to achieve small-batch production in 2027-2028. Currently, they have simultaneously promoted pilot line production capacity climbing and vehicle grade sample verification. As a pioneering step, equipment is expected to fully benefit from a new upward cycle of capital expenditure.

Humanoid robots: Entering large-scale mass production, core components are expected to fully benefit

In 2025, with the gradual improvement of hardware technology, humanoid robots gradually moved from concept to the early stage of industrialization. Many companies at home and abroad achieved breakthroughs in orders and delivery in 2025, and accelerated preparations for industrialization around the production capacity target of one million units. Currently, although the software and hardware of humanoid robots are still in the process of continuous optimization and iteration, traditional rotating mechanism schemes have basically been finalized, and components such as motors, screws, and speed reducers related to transmission mechanisms are expected to take the lead in releasing elasticity. Furthermore, dexterous hands, big brains, etc. are still card points that hinder the commercialization of humanoid robots, and we need to focus on the development of technology in the future.

Construction machinery: domestic and foreign demand continues to pick up, and a new cycle is expected to begin

According to data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, excavator sales from January to November 2025 were 212,162 units, up 16.7% year on year, with 108,187 units in China, up 18.6% year on year; 103,975 units were exported, up 14.9% year on year. Domestic and foreign sales showed clear signs of recovery. On the domestic market side, active fiscal policies and the commencement of major projects such as the Brahmaputra River hydropower plant have driven upward infrastructure investment, and domestic demand is expected to continue to improve; in overseas markets, as the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates and the world enters an easing cycle, the investment side is expected to recover, thus driving up equipment sales. Therefore, with domestic and overseas demand resonating, the construction machinery industry is expected to start a new upward cycle.

The main risks faced by ratings

The risk of domestic and foreign economic recovery falling short of expectations; the risk of industrial policy adjustments; the risk of geopolitical and trade wars; the risk of increased competition; the risk of fluctuating raw material prices; and the risk of rapid technological iteration.