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Assessing BancFirst (BANF) Valuation As Recent Momentum Cools And DCF Signals A Large Discount

Simply Wall St · 01/06 02:22

BancFirst (BANF) shares closed at US$107.16, leaving some investors rechecking the bank's fundamentals after a mixed return profile, with gains over 3 and 5 years but weaker recent performance, including the past year and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for BancFirst.

BancFirst’s recent share price moves, including a 14.35% 3 month share price return decline and a modestly positive year to date share price return, contrast with its stronger 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns. This suggests momentum has been fading after earlier gains.

If BancFirst’s recent pullback has you reassessing your options, it could be a good moment to widen the field and look at fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

So with BancFirst trading at US$107.16, showing a 44% intrinsic discount estimate and about a 14% gap to analyst targets, you have to ask yourself whether this is a genuine valuation gap or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Price-to-Earnings of 14.9x: Is it justified?

On a P/E of 14.9x at a US$107.16 share price, BancFirst screens cheaper than its closest peer group average but richer than the wider US banks space.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price with earnings per share, so for a bank like BancFirst it reflects what investors are paying for each dollar of current earnings.

BancFirst is described as good value against a peer average P/E of 16x. This suggests the market is not assigning a premium price to its earnings compared with similar banks. However, that same 14.9x P/E is considered expensive versus an estimated fair P/E of 10.9x, a level the market could potentially move toward if sentiment or earnings expectations change.

Against the broader US banks industry, BancFirst again looks relatively full. Its 14.9x P/E sits clearly above the 11.8x industry average, implying investors are paying a higher price for its earnings than for the sector overall.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for BancFirst

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 14.9x (OVERVALUED)

However, you also need to weigh risks such as recent 1 year and 3 month share price declines, as well as relatively slower annual net income growth of 0.96%.

Find out about the key risks to this BancFirst narrative.

Another View, What Does The DCF Say?

While the 14.9x P/E suggests BancFirst is expensive against both its own fair ratio of 10.9x and the 11.8x US banks average, our DCF model points in the opposite direction, with shares trading about 44% below an estimated fair value of US$191.11.

That gap frames the P/E signal as caution and the SWS DCF model as opportunity. It leaves you to decide which risk matters more: paying up for current earnings or trusting a long term cash flow view.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

BANF Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
BANF Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out BancFirst for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own BancFirst Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to work through the data yourself, you can build a personalised BancFirst view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding BancFirst.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If BancFirst is on your radar, do not stop there. Broadening your watchlist with other focused ideas can help you spot opportunities you might otherwise miss.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.