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To own Nova, you need to believe that metrology and process control remain essential as chip geometries grow more complex, and that Nova can keep turning its technology into high quality earnings. Rami Hadar’s appointment strengthens governance and M&A experience but does not materially change the near term picture, where the key catalyst is continued adoption of platforms like METRION and ELIPSON, and the main risk remains customer concentration among a few advanced node and gate all around leaders.
Among recent announcements, Nova’s Q3 2025 results and Q4 2025 guidance stand out in the context of this board change, as they frame the earnings base that Hadar will help oversee. With Q3 2025 revenue of US$224.61 million and net income of US$61.42 million, plus guided Q4 revenue of US$215 million to US$225 million, investors can watch how any future M&A or technology bets are evaluated against this existing profitability and product adoption trajectory.
Yet the reliance on a concentrated group of advanced node customers is something investors should be aware of if...
Read the full narrative on Nova (it's free!)
Nova’s narrative projects $1.1 billion revenue and $293.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.8% yearly revenue growth and about a $58 million earnings increase from $234.9 million today.
Uncover how Nova's forecasts yield a $368.57 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.
Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range widely, from about US$82.82 to US$368.57 per share, underscoring very different expectations. Against that backdrop, the risk tied to a handful of advanced node customers could be an important swing factor for how Nova’s performance ultimately aligns with any of these views, so it is worth comparing several perspectives before forming a conclusion.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Nova - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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