CITIC Securities pointed out that in the early morning of January 3 EST, the US raided the Venezuelan capital Caracas and detained President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, causing severe political turmoil in the country. As the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, exports of Venezuelan crude oil have now been basically suspended, causing supply disruptions to the global market in the short term; combined with onshore storage tanks and offshore floating silos, stocks continue to accumulate, and the pace of oil field production cuts may further accelerate. CITIC Securities believes that geopolitical risks may drive oil prices to rise in the short term, but considering that the current global crude oil market is still in a relaxed supply pattern, it is expected that oil prices will still fluctuate between 60 and 70 US dollars/barrel. Considering the short-term supply gap of Venezuelan oil, which may be around 1 million barrels per day, it is expected that oil prices will rise in the short term; it is recommended to focus on oil and gas producers, and it is recommended to focus on asphalt, sulfur, and petroleum coke manufacturers.

CITIC Securities pointed out that in the early morning of January 3 EST, the US raided the Venezuelan capital Caracas and detained President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, causing severe political turmoil in the country. As the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, exports of Venezuelan crude oil have now been basically suspended, causing supply disruptions to the global market in the short term; combined with onshore storage tanks and offshore floating silos, stocks continue to accumulate, and the pace of oil field production cuts may further accelerate. CITIC Securities believes that geopolitical risks may drive oil prices to rise in the short term, but considering that the current global crude oil market is still in a relaxed supply pattern, it is expected that oil prices will still fluctuate between 60 and 70 US dollars/barrel. Considering the short-term supply gap of Venezuelan oil, which may be around 1 million barrels per day, it is expected that oil prices will rise in the short term; it is recommended to focus on oil and gas producers, and it is recommended to focus on asphalt, sulfur, and petroleum coke manufacturers.