US intervention in Venezuela triggered safe-haven deals, gold and silver led the rise, and US debt reacted moderately

The Zhitong Finance App learned that after the US took military action against Venezuela, there was an obvious flow of safe-haven funds in the global market on Monday, and gold and silver became the biggest winners. This round of gains has also mitigated market concerns to a certain extent that precious metals will rise sharply in 2025 and may face a pullback in the new year.

Stimulated by geopolitical uncertainty, investors have accelerated the allocation of precious metals, continuing the long-term trend of gradually seeking alternative assets to the US dollar and US debt in the context of US military operations and sanctions policies in recent years. The price of gold for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose nearly 3% on Monday to about 4,450 US dollars per ounce. Previously, gold had accumulated a cumulative increase of more than 60% in 2025. The price of silver for delivery next month surged 6.6% to 75.50 US dollars/ounce, continuing to rise on the basis that the price had doubled in 2025.

In contrast, another traditional safe-haven asset, US Treasury bonds reacted relatively moderately. The 2-year to 30-year US Treasury bonds only rebounded slightly, and yields declined slightly. Meanwhile, the ICE dollar index, which measures the dollar's performance against six major currencies, fell by about 0.1%, taking back gains in early trading.

Tom Nakamura, head of fixed income and foreign exchange at AGF Investments in Toronto, Canada, said that over the past ten years, the US has frequently “shown strength” in terms of sanctions and military intervention, raising global concerns about excessive reliance on the dollar system. “If this concern continues to grow, the market's power to seek alternatives to the dollar and US Treasury bonds will increase as well.” However, he also stressed that this change is an extremely long-term process and may take years or even decades to become apparent.

Nakamura added that if they want to see a larger safe-haven market in the bond market, investors may need to see substantial countermeasures from Venezuelan leader Maduro's allies, or that the US extends similar intervention to other, more controversial countries, thus attracting wider international attention.

On Saturday, shortly after Maduro stepped down in a military operation, Trump said that the US would “take over” this South American country at least in the short term and develop its rich oil resources. Affected by this news, US energy stocks generally rose on Monday. The three major US stock indices collectively closed higher, and international oil prices also rose at the same time.

However, the market's overall response to geopolitical risks is still relatively restrained. Nakamura pointed out that many geopolitical conflicts in recent years, including the situation in the Middle East, have not had a lasting impact on global financial markets. As far as Venezuela is concerned, America's goal seems to be to push US oil companies to resume and expand local production. “If this plan is generally successful, it may eventually lead to a higher supply of crude oil.”

As of November 30, AGF Investments' total asset management scale and fee assets were approximately $43.9 billion. Nakamura said that the current market does not regard this incident as a major systemic risk. “Even to a certain extent, US debt is supported by expectations that future energy prices will drop and inflationary pressure will ease.”