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Assessing Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Valuation As Rezdiffra Revenue Tops US$1b Amid Intensifying MASH Competition

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Rezdiffra revenue momentum and competitive pressures

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) is in focus after reporting Rezdiffra revenue annualizing above US$1b, while remaining loss-making and facing growing competition from GLP-1 drugs and emerging FGF21 inhibitors in the MASH market.

See our latest analysis for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals.

The strong Rezdiffra update comes after a 36.12% 90 day share price return to US$593.87 and a very large 5 year total shareholder return of 414.08%, suggesting momentum has been building over time despite ongoing losses.

If Rezdiffra's progress has your attention, it could be a good moment to look across the sector and see how other healthcare stocks are shaping up.

With Rezdiffra revenue running above US$1b, a share price near US$594, and an intrinsic value estimate implying a sizeable discount, the key question is whether MDGL still offers upside or if markets are already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 1.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative pegs Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' fair value at about US$603.47 per share, slightly above the last close at US$593.87, framing a modest valuation gap built on detailed long term assumptions.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $461.429 for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $567.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $266.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies a fair value above the current share price? The narrative leans on rapid revenue expansion, a sharp profit swing, and a richer future earnings multiple. Want to see how these moving parts fit together?

Result: Fair Value of $603.47 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this depends on Rezdiffra remaining the default choice as GLP-1 rivals ramp up, as well as on future F4 and cirrhosis data and reimbursement evolving as hoped.

Find out about the key risks to this Madrigal Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you look at this and think the assumptions are off, or you would rather test your own view with the numbers, you can build a fully custom narrative in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Madrigal Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Madrigal has sparked your interest, do not stop here, the market is full of other opportunities that could better fit your style and goals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.