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A Look At Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO) Valuation After Recent Volatility And Premium Price To Book Ratio

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

What Zenas BioPharma’s recent performance tells you

Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO) has been on many watchlists after a sharp move in its share price over the past 3 months, even as shorter term returns over the past week and month have been negative.

For context, the stock closed at US$34.50, with a 1 day return of about 5% decline, a 7 day return of roughly 11.7% decline, and a month return of about 12.4% decline, while the past 3 months show a gain above 65%.

If you are looking at this recent volatility and wondering what might be driving it, the next step is to look at how the company’s current financial profile lines up with its clinical stage business model.

See our latest analysis for Zenas BioPharma.

That recent pullback sits against a very strong run, with a 90 day share price return of 65.5% and a 1 year total shareholder return of about 2.4x. This suggests momentum has cooled in the short term after a powerful re rating as investors reassess Zenas BioPharma’s clinical pipeline and risk profile.

If you are comparing Zenas with other drug developers, this could be a good moment to scan healthcare stocks that are also seeing attention around clinical milestones and funding updates.

With a recent 65.5% 3 month gain, a pullback in the past month, and a price that sits below a US$49 analyst target, the key question is whether Zenas is still mispriced or if the market already reflects future growth.

Price to book of 9.4x: Is it justified?

At a last close of US$34.50, Zenas BioPharma is trading on a P/B of 9.4x, which is well above both its biotech peers and the broader US Biotechs industry.

The P/B ratio compares the company’s market value to its book value, which is essentially net assets on the balance sheet. For a clinical stage biotech that is still loss making, a high P/B often reflects how much investors are willing to pay today for potential future approvals, partnerships or revenue expansion that are not yet visible in current earnings.

In Zenas BioPharma’s case, the P/B of 9.4x sits against a peer average of 4.8x and an industry average of 2.7x. This means the market is attaching a much richer valuation to its equity base than to many other biotech names. That kind of premium implies investors are pricing in stronger prospects than what is embedded in the balance sheet alone, even though the company is currently unprofitable and is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years, with a very weak Return on Equity of 96.68% loss.

Compared with the broader US Biotechs industry on 2.7x and peers on 4.8x, Zenas BioPharma’s 9.4x P/B looks expensive and signals that expectations embedded in the share price are materially higher than sector norms.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price-to-book of 9.4x (OVERVALUED)

However, this hinges on Zenas turning a US$189.9 million net loss and clinical pipeline into sustainable value, while rich P/B expectations could reset if trial or funding news disappoints.

Find out about the key risks to this Zenas BioPharma narrative.

Build Your Own Zenas BioPharma Narrative

If you look at this data and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to test your own view using the same inputs, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way

A great starting point for your Zenas BioPharma research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Zenas has caught your eye, do not stop there. Cast a wider net with a few focused screeners that can surface ideas you might otherwise miss.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.