The Nikki Co., Ltd. (TSE:6042) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 27%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 51%.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Nikki's P/E ratio of 13.7x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Japan is also close to 14x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
For example, consider that Nikki's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
See our latest analysis for Nikki
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Nikki's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 74%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 37% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 8.8% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Nikki's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Nikki's P/E is also back up to the market median. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Nikki currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Nikki you should know about.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.