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Assessing Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Valuation After Recent Share Price Strength

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Event driven move in Intuitive Machines stock

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading saw the share price close at US$17.88, with short term returns over the past week and month outpacing its past year performance.

See our latest analysis for Intuitive Machines.

The recent move to a US$17.88 share price comes after a sharp 30 day share price return of 59.5% and a 90 day share price return of 51.65%, set against a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 17.83% and a 3 year total shareholder return of 78.44%.

If Intuitive Machines has put space services on your radar, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with aerospace and defense stocks.

With the share price running ahead of the recent 1 year return, revenue rising and the company still reporting a loss of US$193.2 million, you have to ask: is there real value here or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 15% Overvalued

With Intuitive Machines last closing at US$17.88 against a widely followed fair value of US$15.50, the narrative sees the current price as running ahead of its estimate.

Ongoing expansion into high-margin, adjacent markets, including lunar surface mobility, in-space networking, reentry vehicles for biopharma and semiconductor transport, and potentially lunar nuclear power, creates new scalable, diversified earnings streams with multi-year and multi-billion-dollar revenue potential, helping offset the lumpiness inherent in "success-based" mission awards.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue ramp, margin shift, and future earnings multiple are built into that view? The narrative leans on aggressive growth, improving profitability and a premium valuation to justify its fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $15.50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh the reliance on a few large government contracts and the ongoing US$193.2 million loss, which could quickly challenge that upbeat narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Intuitive Machines narrative.

Build Your Own Intuitive Machines Narrative

If this view does not sit right with you, or you prefer to work directly from the numbers, you can build your own narrative in minutes. To get started, use Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Intuitive Machines research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Intuitive Machines has caught your attention, do not stop here; widen your search so you are not relying on a single story or sector.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.