WEBULL

Allianz (XTRA:ALV) Valuation Check As Steady Multi‑Year Returns Meet Conflicting Fair Value Signals

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Without a clear single catalyst in focus, Allianz (XTRA:ALV) is drawing attention as investors reassess its recent share performance, income profile, and business scale across insurance and asset management activities.

See our latest analysis for Allianz.

Allianz’s share price at €387.7 has had a relatively steady few weeks, with a 30 day share price return of 5.73% and a 90 day share price return of 6.42%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 35.26% and 3 year total shareholder return of 110.19% suggest stronger gains have been built over time.

If Allianz has you thinking about insurance heavyweights, it can also be worth widening the lens to other financials and even fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for ideas outside the sector.

With Allianz trading around €387.7, a large reported intrinsic discount and strong multi year shareholder returns already on the table, the key question is whether the stock still offers upside or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.9% Overvalued

With Allianz closing at €387.7 against a narrative fair value near €377, the current discussion centers on whether recent strength already reflects its long term earnings potential.

The analysts have a consensus price target of €362.233 for Allianz based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €431.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €311.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies that valuation spread? The narrative leans on firm revenue expansion, shifting profit margins, and a future earnings multiple that needs to hold up. The exact assumptions might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of €376.92 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could be challenged if expected margin improvements fail to materialise, or if regulatory and legal issues start to weigh more heavily on earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Allianz narrative.

Another View: DCF Points the Other Way

While the narrative fair value of about €377 suggests Allianz is 2.9% overvalued, the Simply Wall St DCF model points to a very different picture, with a fair value of €909.89. At a share price of €387.7, that implies a 57.4% discount using this method.

This gap between a modest narrative premium and a large DCF discount raises a simple question for you: which set of assumptions about future cash flows and risk feels closer to reality?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ALV Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
ALV Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Allianz for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 870 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Allianz Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to rely on your own work, you can build a personalised Allianz view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Allianz.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Allianz has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with targeted screeners that surface focused sets of companies and themes.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.