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As NOV (NYSE:NOV) grows 4.7% this past week, investors may now be noticing the company's three-year earnings growth

Simply Wall St · 6d ago

While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) share price up 20% in a single quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 28% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

The recent uptick of 4.7% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, NOV actually managed to grow EPS by 233% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

The modest 1.8% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Revenue is actually up 7.7% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching NOV more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:NOV Earnings and Revenue Growth January 5th 2026

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on NOV

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, NOV's TSR for the last 3 years was -23%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

NOV shareholders have received returns of 16% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the general market return. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year's return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 3%. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand NOV better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - NOV has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

NOV is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.