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A Look At Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Valuation After Recent Share Price Move

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) has drawn fresh attention after its recent share move, with a 1 day return of 2.42% contrasting with relatively flat performance over the past week and month.

See our latest analysis for Annaly Capital Management.

Zooming out from the latest move, Annaly Capital Management’s share price is up 11.16% over the last 90 days, while its 1 year total shareholder return of 39.57% and 3 year total shareholder return of 55.52% point to momentum that has been gradually building rather than fading.

If Annaly’s recent move has you reassessing income and financials exposure, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Annaly trading at $22.90 against an analyst target of $22.28, but carrying an estimated 47.75% intrinsic discount, you are left with a key question: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.3% Overvalued

Annaly Capital Management’s latest fair value estimate of about $22.18 sits slightly below the last close at $22.90, setting up a tight valuation gap that hinges on how its mortgage portfolio and earnings power evolve.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.023 for Annaly Capital Management based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.4 billion, earnings will come to $3.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.0%.

Read the complete narrative.

There is a detailed growth story sitting behind that small valuation gap. It hinges on sharp revenue expansion, much fatter margins, and a reset in the earnings multiple. Curious how those pieces fit together to support today’s fair value line in the sand?

Result: Fair Value of $22.18 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still have to weigh the risk that interest rate swings and wider mortgage spreads could pressure portfolio returns and make those high margin assumptions look ambitious.

Find out about the key risks to this Annaly Capital Management narrative.

Another View: Market Multiple Sends a Different Signal

While the narrative model points to a small 3.3% premium to fair value, the current P/E of 11.7x tells a different story. It sits below the US Mortgage REITs peer average of 13.9x and well below a fair ratio of 18.2x. This suggests the market is pricing in a meaningful cushion against disappointment rather than stretching expectations.

That gap can cut both ways. It may reflect genuine opportunity or simply ongoing concern about funding risks, dividend coverage and interest rate sensitivity. Which side of that trade do you think is closer to the truth?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:NLY P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026
NYSE:NLY P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026

Build Your Own Annaly Capital Management Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Annaly Capital Management research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Annaly has you thinking differently about yield, valuation and risk, then it makes sense to widen your search and see what else the market is offering today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.