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Is ArcelorMittal’s 1GW India Renewables Push Altering The Investment Case For ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT)?

Simply Wall St · 5d ago
  • In December 2025, ArcelorMittal announced three new renewable energy projects in India totaling 1GW of solar and wind capacity, with US$0.9 billion of capital expenditure, which will supply power to its AMNS India joint venture and lift its global renewable capacity to 3.3GW.
  • This push effectively doubles the company’s renewable footprint in India to 2GW and underscores how decarbonization investments are becoming integral to its steelmaking operations.
  • Next, we’ll explore how this 1GW renewable build-out for AMNS India could reshape ArcelorMittal’s investment narrative around green steel and growth.

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ArcelorMittal Investment Narrative Recap

To own ArcelorMittal, you need to believe it can turn heavy green capex into durable returns while managing volatile steel cycles and trade barriers. The new 1 GW India renewables plan supports its green steel catalyst, but also adds to already large decarbonization spending, so it does not fundamentally change the near term risk that high capex could weigh on free cash flow and balance sheet flexibility.

The most connected recent development is the ongoing share buyback program, which has retired over 78 million shares for about €1,913.15 million by mid 2025. Set against rising decarbonization and India growth spending, this capital return highlights how management is balancing near term shareholder payouts with long term investment in greener, potentially higher margin steel capacity.

Yet while green projects grab headlines, investors should also be aware of how rising decarbonization capex could...

Read the full narrative on ArcelorMittal (it's free!)

ArcelorMittal's narrative projects $68.8 billion revenue and $3.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.3% yearly revenue growth and a $1.4 billion earnings increase from $2.5 billion today.

Uncover how ArcelorMittal's forecasts yield a €37.47 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ENXTAM:MT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
ENXTAM:MT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see fair value for ArcelorMittal between €27.31 and €37.47 per share, showing how widely opinions can differ. When you set those views against the company’s heavy decarbonization capex needs, it raises important questions about how future investment spending could influence both profitability and perceived value over time.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on ArcelorMittal - why the stock might be worth 31% less than the current price!

Build Your Own ArcelorMittal Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.