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Assessing Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Valuation After Clear Street’s 2026 Top Pick Endorsement

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Clear Street’s latest report puts Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) in focus after naming the Houston based producer as one of its top stock ideas for 2026, citing profitability, balance sheet strength, and capital return plans.

See our latest analysis for Magnolia Oil & Gas.

Magnolia’s share price closed at $22.48 after a 2.7% 1 day share price return. While the 30 day and 90 day share price returns of 4.7% and 6% may indicate fading short term momentum, the 5 year total shareholder return of 182.89% reflects a much stronger long term record, with Clear Street’s recent call bringing fresh attention to the name.

If this kind of energy story has your attention, it could be a good moment to widen your search with other aerospace and defense stocks that are catching investor interest right now.

With Magnolia trading at $22.48 against an analyst target of $26.59 and an indicated intrinsic discount of about 74%, investors have to ask: is this an overlooked value story, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.2% Undervalued

With Magnolia Oil & Gas last closing at $22.48 against a narrative fair value of $26.81, the gap reflects a pricing view built on detailed earnings and margin assumptions rather than short term trading.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.6 billion, earnings will come to $451.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.9%.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that earnings jump and higher profit margin outlook, and how buybacks feed into it, and which assumptions really drive that fair value? The full narrative lays out the math.

Result: Fair Value of $26.81 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the story could shift quickly if Magnolia’s unhedged exposure to commodity prices or its concentrated Eagle Ford and Giddings footprint start to work against it.

Find out about the key risks to this Magnolia Oil & Gas narrative.

Build Your Own Magnolia Oil & Gas Narrative

If you do not see the story the same way or prefer to work from your own numbers, you can build a personalised view in minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Magnolia Oil & Gas.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Magnolia has sparked your interest, do not stop here. The market offers plenty of other angles that could fit your style and goals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.