National Grid plc's (LON:NG.) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United Kingdom, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
National Grid certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for National Grid
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as National Grid's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 40%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 30% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 17% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 15% each year, which is noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's understandable that National Grid's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of National Grid's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for National Grid (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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