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MP Materials (MP) Is Up 8.8% After DoD Deal Completion And Insider Stock Pay - What's Changed

Simply Wall St · 6d ago
  • MP Materials recently gained attention after an 8.81 percent single-day rise to start 2026, following a broader commodities upswing, completion of a U.S. Department of Defense partnership in mid‑2025, and a director choosing to receive compensation in company stock.
  • This mix of policy-linked support, defense collaboration and insider confidence reinforces MP Materials’ role as a U.S. rare earth supplier tied to clean energy and security priorities.
  • Now we’ll explore how the finalized U.S. Department of Defense partnership reshapes MP Materials’ investment narrative and long-term rare earth positioning.

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MP Materials Investment Narrative Recap

To own MP Materials, you need to believe that a U.S. based mine to magnet rare earth chain can become commercially attractive despite current losses and project complexity. The early 2026 share spike, tied to commodities strength and completion of the Department of Defense partnership, does not materially change the key near term catalyst, which is execution at new downstream facilities. It also does not remove the biggest risk, that delays or cost overruns compress already weak margins.

The most relevant recent development here is the finalized Department of Defense offtake agreement, which sets a price floor and minimum EBITDA on MP’s magnet output. This agreement underpins the investment case that policy support can stabilize cash flows as MP scales its 10X magnetics plant and recycling capacity, even if broader rare earth prices stay volatile or if market sentiment cools after the 2025 and early 2026 rallies.

Yet against this policy support, investors should be aware that execution risk at MP’s fast growing processing and magnet facilities could...

Read the full narrative on MP Materials (it's free!)

MP Materials' narrative projects $1.0 billion revenue and $236.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 61.3% yearly revenue growth and a $337.7 million earnings increase from $-101.4 million today.

Uncover how MP Materials' forecasts yield a $79.29 fair value, a 44% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

MP 1-Year Stock Price Chart
MP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Twenty fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$9.67 to US$85 per share, showing how far apart views can be. You can weigh those against MP’s execution risk on new downstream facilities, which could have a significant influence on future profitability and help frame how you think about the company’s long term potential.

Explore 20 other fair value estimates on MP Materials - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own MP Materials Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.