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Is GitLab’s (GTLB) Hybrid Pricing Shift Reframing the Core AI Monetization Story?

Simply Wall St · 5d ago
  • On December 16, 2025, KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded GitLab Inc. (NASDAQ: GTLB) from Overweight to Sector Weight, pointing to higher execution risk and pricing-related headwinds as the company shifts to a hybrid model that incorporates consumption-based elements.
  • While KeyBanc still acknowledges GitLab’s longer-term AI potential and workflow simplification benefits, the downgrade underscores how uncertainties around monetizing new AI features and adjusting the pricing model are becoming a central issue for investors assessing the business.
  • We’ll now examine how concerns over GitLab’s hybrid seat-plus-usage pricing shift affect the existing investment narrative around AI-driven growth.

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GitLab Investment Narrative Recap

To own GitLab today, you need to believe its DevSecOps platform and AI features can justify a premium, even with the company still unprofitable. KeyBanc’s downgrade highlights that the most important short term catalyst, the rollout of hybrid seat plus usage pricing for AI features, is now also the biggest risk, since uncertainty around customer adoption and pricing power could affect how quickly revenue benefits show up.

Against that backdrop, GitLab’s three year collaboration with AWS, including an expanded GitLab Dedicated offering for regulated industries, looks especially relevant. It ties directly into the AI and workflow automation story that underpins many growth expectations, while also testing GitLab’s ability to execute on complex, large scale cloud relationships at the same time it is reworking its pricing and go to market model.

But while the AI and AWS stories sound promising, investors should also be aware that...

Read the full narrative on GitLab (it's free!)

GitLab's narrative projects $1.4 billion revenue and $189.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 21.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $176.5 million earnings increase from $13.0 million today.

Uncover how GitLab's forecasts yield a $53.52 fair value, a 48% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

GTLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
GTLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

The 25 fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$27 to US$150 per share, with clusters across several price bands. You are seeing this diversity of views at the same time the unproven hybrid seat plus usage model and AI monetization remain central execution questions for GitLab’s future performance.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on GitLab - why the stock might be worth 24% less than the current price!

Build Your Own GitLab Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.