WEBULL

Assessing Assured Guaranty (AGO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Moves And Long Term Returns

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Assured Guaranty (AGO) has been drawing attention after recent share price moves, with the stock last closing at US$88.74. That price sits against mixed return figures over the past year and beyond.

See our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty.

The recent slip in Assured Guaranty’s 1-day share price return of 1.26% and 7-day share price return of 2.04% sits against a 90-day share price return of 7.42% and a 5-year total shareholder return of 158.38%. This suggests that longer term momentum has been stronger than the latest pullback.

If AGO’s moves have your attention, this can be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With AGO trading at US$88.74, an intrinsic value estimate suggesting a sizeable discount and a mixed set of recent returns, the real question is whether this reflects genuine value or if the market already prices in expectations for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 16.7% Undervalued

With Assured Guaranty last closing at US$88.74 and the narrative fair value sitting at US$106.50, the current gap is built on detailed earnings and margin assumptions.

They have solid pipelines in their financial guarantee businesses and record production figures in 2024, setting the stage for continued growth in revenue and new business generation in 2025 and beyond.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is behind that earnings path and margin reset? The narrative leans on shrinking revenues, tighter profitability and a higher future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts still add up to a premium valuation in today’s terms?

Result: Fair Value of $106.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this story could change quickly if interest rate swings hit AGO’s investment portfolio or if troubled credits like PREPA lead to higher loss expenses.

Find out about the key risks to this Assured Guaranty narrative.

Build Your Own Assured Guaranty Narrative

If you look at the numbers differently or simply want to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes. Start with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Assured Guaranty research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If AGO has sharpened your interest, do not stop there. Broaden your search now so you do not miss other opportunities that match your style.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.