China League Minsheng Securities: The independent growth of motorcycle companies is expected to remain strong in 2026, and domestic and foreign sales are expected to maintain a high level of prosperity

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that in 2025, China's autonomous motorcycle companies will show a high-end + overseas trend, while the concentration of domestic sales is gradually increasing. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic and foreign sales of medium- and large-displacement motorcycles are expected to maintain a high level of prosperity. Domestic and export sales are expected to be 47.7/718,000 units, +10.5%/33.0% year-on-year; the displacement structure upgrade will also be the main theme throughout the year. It is expected that 500-800cc high-displacement models will increase to 25%/20% of internal/export sales, respectively.

The main views of the League of Nations Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Looking back at 2025: CUHK is growing strongly, and independent motorcycle companies go hand in hand with high-end and overseas companies

On the total volume side, the C-side leisure and entertainment attributes of medium and large motorcycles (>250cc, same below) continued to strengthen the driving penetration rate. The 2025 M1-10 domestic sales were 374,000 units, +6.2% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 11.1%, a record high; the export of 449,000 medium and large motorcycles was +59.1% compared to the same period last year, which is a significant acceleration. On the structural side, the displacement structure continued to be upgraded. The 450cc model increased significantly, and its share increased and stabilized to about 34%. The export of 800cc models went from 0 to 1, leading the brand of independent motorcycle companies. On the pattern side, domestic sales concentration is gradually increasing. CR3 accounts for nearly 60%, and Chunfeng Dynamic is growing rapidly; leading motorcycle companies that export Chunfeng+ Longxin have a stable share, and competition is showing a diversified trend.

Looking ahead to 2026 total volume: domestic and foreign sales growth are diverging, autonomous motorcycle companies are going overseas to break the game and accelerate

Domestic sales: Compared to overseas, there is a gap of several times between the penetration rate/per capita ownership data of medium and large motorcycles in China and developed countries. The domestic sales penetration rate of CUHK is expected to increase to 10.5%/12.0% in 2025/2026, respectively. The corresponding domestic sales volume is 43.2/477,000 units, respectively, +8.8%/+10.5% compared to the same period last year.

Exports: Overseas medium and large motorcycles have a market space of more than 5 million vehicles. Autonomous motorcycle companies are actively deploying overseas markets, products, channels, and influence continue to upgrade, and exports are expected to maintain a high level of prosperity. In 2025/2026, the space for overseas medium and large motorcycles is expected to be 581/5.99 million units, +4.0%/+3.0% year on year, respectively; it is expected that in 2025/2026, China's export overseas market share will increase to 9.3%/12.0%, respectively, and the corresponding export sales volume will be 54.0/718,000 vehicles, respectively, +58.4%/33.0% year over year.

Looking ahead to the 2026 structure: the high-end acceleration and displacement structure of autonomous motorcycle companies continues to upgrade

Domestic sales: Leading autonomous motorcycle companies are making high-end breakthroughs. In 2025, Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle will each launch a variety of 500cc+ or more multi-cylinder engines and high-displacement models. It is expected that the 2026 displacement upgrade will be the main theme throughout the year. As autonomous motorcycle companies make high-end efforts and user demand continues to iterate and upgrade, it is expected that domestic 500cc-800cc motorcycles will continue to increase in 2025/2026, accounting for 22%/25% in 2025/2026.

Exports: The export structure of CUHK is stabilizing. It is expected that the share of the 500cc-800cc displacement segment will increase to 17.4%/19.5% in 2025/2026, respectively.

Looking ahead to the 2026 pattern: stable head share and concentration in the medium to long term pattern

Domestic sales CR3 in the 2023, 2024, and 2025M1-10 M1-10 are 45.1%, 56.6%, and 53.6% respectively, maintaining a high level of concentration. Referring to mature overseas markets, the CR3 of the US and Japan motorcycle industry exceeded 60%/90% respectively in 2022, and there is still room for improvement in the CUHK industry pattern. In recent years, consumers have become more mature and pay more attention to internal concerns such as product quality control. Leading independent motorcycle companies represented by Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang are expected to continue to seize market share with sharper insight into domestic consumer preferences, deeper understanding of product attributes, and better product strength and cost performance advantages over foreign brands. The medium- to long-term pattern is expected to show a concentrated trend.

Investment advice

Looking forward to the future, independent motorcycle companies focus on the medium and large product model compound interest, regional breakthrough strategies and brand culture narratives, and gradually shift from “manufacturing export” to “system output”. They are expected to embark on a sustainable global upgrade path, recommending Chunfeng Power (603129.SH), Longxin GM (603766.SH), and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913.SZ).

Risk Alerts

Demand for motorcycles fell short of expectations, increased competition in the motorcycle industry, changes in overseas tariff policies, the risk of rising sea freight rates, and sales of motorcycle companies' products fell short of expectations, etc.