Guojin Securities: Recyclable rockets enter the golden development period from 0 to 1, and components such as power systems are expected to benefit

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that reusable use is one of the main ways to reduce the cost of carriers and is also an important part of overcoming bottlenecks in commercial aerospace development. With the intensive launch and exploration of reusable rockets, the commercial rocket industry has entered a golden period of rapid iterative development from 0 to 1. The commercial rocket industry chain consists of power systems, arrow structures, control systems, etc.: 1) In the early stages of the development of reusable rocket tests, due to the low success rate of reuse, the demand for rocket manufacturing was high, and power systems, arrow structures, and control systems are expected to benefit simultaneously. 2) As rocket reusable technology matures, liquid rocket engines are gradually recycled, and the arrow body structure and control system are expected to continue to benefit.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Domestic reusable rockets have entered an intensive launch period, starting a new stage of low-cost commercial space exploration

Xinhua News Agency report of December 3 from Beijing - The Suzake-3 Yao1 carrier rocket was launched at the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Zone. The first flight was successful, and recycling failed. The “Suzake-3” rocket is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, high-frequency, and reusable liquid oxymethane launch vehicles developed by Blue Rocket Aerospace. Its successful launch has opened a new stage in the exploration and development of reusable rockets in China. As the second first flight of the Long March 12A launch vehicle, it tried to recover liquid methane, relayed Suzake-3, and successfully flew for the first time on December 23.

Guojin Securities points out that reuse is one of the main ways to reduce the cost of a launch vehicle and an important part of overcoming the bottlenecks in commercial space development. According to TrendForce data, the average launch cost (quotation) of a single-use rocket currently falls between 111 to 180 million yuan, and the cost (quotation) of some recyclable rockets is around 67 million US dollars. As major global manufacturers actively develop recyclable technology, it is expected that the launch cost (quotation) will be reduced to 2 to 5 million US dollars when full recycling is achieved.

The United States takes the lead in the development of recyclable rockets, and the Falcon-9 has a significant cost advantage

The Falcon-9 rocket is the world's first orbital level reusable rocket. It first flew in 2010, achieved first-class rocket land recycling for the first time in 2015, and achieved normalized reuse in 2018. As of December 23, 2025, the Falcon-9 has completed 580 launch missions and landed 534 times, of which 501 were reused.

After Falcon-9 became normalized and reusable, the number of SpaceX launches increased significantly: the number of SpaceX annual launch activities increased from 13 to 138 in 2019-2024, and the average number of times the Falcon-9Block5 sub-level was reused from 1.67 to 7.33 in 2018-2024.

The Falcon-9 has a strong cost advantage: its low-Earth orbit launch cost is about 18,000 yuan/kg, and the Falcon-heavy rocket launch cost is about 90,000 yuan/kg; if the Falcon-9 is fully reusable, its launch cost will be reduced to 50,000 yuan/kg, far lower than the launch cost of the world's current launch vehicles.

Satellite internet construction is driving strong demand for commercial rockets, and China's commercial rocket companies are competing for popularity

China's satellite Internet construction has accelerated: Since December 2024, the GW constellation has begun the batch launch networking stage. Launches will accelerate in the second half of 2025. From July 27 to December 26, a total of 13 satellite Internet low-orbit satellites will be launched from 5 groups to 17 groups.

Satellite internet construction has spawned strong demand for commercial rockets: considering the GW constellation, G60 constellation, Honghu-3, Hongyan project, Hongyun project, the nine-day MSI constellation, Xiangyun, Jilin-1, Tianqi, and Geely constellation plans, a total of 4,4816 satellites are planned to be launched. Assuming a satellite lifespan of 5 years, about 8,963 satellites will need to be replaced every year. Based on the capacity of the Falcon-9 arrow 60 stars, the launch demand for commercial rockets added by satellite Internet construction and operation can reach 150 times per year.

China's policy supports the development of the commercial rocket industry. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the fifth set of review guidelines for commercial rocket companies using the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Currently, commercial rocket companies such as Blue Rocket Aerospace, Star Glory, Zhongke Aerospace, Galaxy Power, and Tianbing Technology have begun the IPO process.

Guojin Securities believes that the commercial rocket industry has now entered a new stage of engineering and industrialization development from 0 to 1, and will join hands with the satellite industry to enter a golden period of development in the future.

Aspect of the target

From the dimensions of market space, performance elasticity, core competitiveness, and long-term growth space, it is recommended to focus on targets related to commercial rocket power systems and arrow body structures.

Risk Alerts

The construction of a satellite internet fell short of expectations, and the development of rocket recycling technology fell short of expectations.