Cathay Pacific Haitong: Space PV is expected to drive the industry's long-term demand, and equipment companies will be the first to benefit

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that Musk proposed plans to deploy 100GW of solar AI satellites every year. Low-orbit satellites and space computing power drive space PV demand. In terms of material segmentation, in the short to medium term, silicon-based P-type HJT already has mass production and delivery experience. It brings lightweight potential with low temperature symmetric processes and ultra-thin silicon wafers, and continues to advance in anti-radiation solutions, and is expected to penetrate low-rail short-cycle tasks; in the long run, perovskite laminates have the advantages of high efficiency, flexible film, and potential for irradiation and environmental adaptation. If engineering breakthroughs are achieved in package life and large area consistency, it is expected to become the mainstream technology route.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Musk proposed plans to deploy 100GW of solar AI satellites every year, low-orbit satellites, and space computing power to drive space PV demand

The space end can directly use solar energy. The power generation period is long, and the energy acquisition stability and usability potential are high. Furthermore, the in-orbit platform can mainly achieve thermal management through radiative heat dissipation, which can solve the heat dissipation problem of terrestrial data centers and drive diversification of space photovoltaic application scenarios. Among them, in terms of low-orbit satellites, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) stipulates that satellite frequencies and orbital use rights are “first come, first served”. LEO orbits can only accommodate about 60,000 satellites at most, while Starlink has applied for 42,000 satellites.

The world has entered the “intensive launching-networking” window. The number of low-orbit constellations is rapidly expanding, and the expansion in constellation size directly drives demand for power systems such as solar wings/cells, expandable array structures, energy storage and power management. In terms of space computing power, Musk proposed the idea of a space AI computing center, and plans to deploy 100 GW of solar-powered AI satellites per year based on Starship rockets.

At this stage, the space photovoltaic route is dominated by gallium arsenide. In the future, P-type HJT and perovskite laminations are expected to become incremental technology routes

Multi-junction gallium arsenide batteries are currently the mainstream technology route. The AM0 mass production efficiency of three-junction batteries has reached 30%, but the complicated process, cost and production capacity constraints make it difficult to deploy in low orbit constellations. In the short to medium term, silicon-based P-type HJT already has experience in mass production and delivery. With its low temperature symmetry process and ultra-thin silicon wafers, it brings the potential for weight reduction, and continues to advance in anti-radiation solutions, which is expected to penetrate low-rail short-cycle tasks. In the long run, perovskite lamination has the advantages of high efficiency and flexible film, and has the potential for irradiation and environmental adaptation. If engineering breakthroughs are achieved in package life and large area consistency, it is expected to become the mainstream technology route.

The commercialization of the space photovoltaic industry is progressing rapidly, and companies are actively exploring the space economy circuit

Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) and Shangyi Optoelectronics formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement to invest in Shangyi Optoelectronics as strategic shareholders. The two sides will deeply integrate industry and scenario resources, cooperate on the application of perovskite battery technology in space energy, and establish a coordination mechanism in technology research and development, in-orbit verification, industrialization implementation and application scenario expansion.

Aspect of the target

The recommended targets were Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), and Laplace (688726.SH), and the beneficiary target was Dyl Laser (300776.SZ).

Risk Alerts

The development of the commercial aerospace industry fell short of expectations, the development of new photovoltaic cell technology fell short of expectations, etc.