Forget Amazon, This Brick-And-Mortar Retail Giant Is Wall Street's 'Top Idea' For 2025: Here's Why

As the new year begins, this Wall Street analyst expects one legacy retail giant to stand out from the pack.

American Consumers Continue ‘To Be Resilient’

TD Cowen's Oliver Chen said he remains optimistic about consumer momentum heading into the new year, citing a strong holiday season as a key driver behind his outlook, as he appeared on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Saturday. “Holiday period was very good,” he said, adding that it prompted his team to raise their estimates by 4% to 5%.

Chen pointed to a sharply divided spending landscape, noting that “the top 10% account for 50% of spending,” while consumers overall remain “highly selective.”

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However, he noted that despite persistent macro challenges in 2025, he said the consumer “has and will continue to be resilient,” supported by “low unemployment” and “savings and dollars on the sidelines.”

The Top Retail Pick For 2026

Against this backdrop, Chen sees Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) as his top retail pick for the year, citing its ability to serve “high-end customers, as well as being a retailer very famous for value,” catering to middle and low-income consumers.

“Walmart's our top idea for the year,” he said, while highlighting the company’s upcoming CEO transition, which he said was “happening from a position of strength.”

Chen also praised the outgoing Walmart CEO, Doug McMillon, for positioning the company “very strongly against” Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) by advancing initiatives such as “bricks plus clicks,” which emphasized the company’s focus on both online and offline retail.

Chen further highlighted Walmart's fast-growing retail media business, calling it “a $5 billion business that could be much, much bigger,” with the potential to “quadruple” and generate “60% plus margins.”

He concluded by saying, “Overall, we're bullish for the consumer and the health of the consumer,” with Walmart now at the center of this trade.

Shares of Walmart were up 1.21% on Friday, closing at $112.76, and are down 0.19% overnight. The stock scores high on Momentum and Quality in Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, with a favorable price trend in the short, medium, and long terms. Click here to see how it compares with Amazon and other retail giants.

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