CITIC Securities: The tourism market starts off well in 2026, and the outlying islands have a strong duty-free recovery

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the cultural tourism market had a good start in 2026. The number of domestic travelers and total travel expenses during the New Year's Day holiday increased by about 5%/6% respectively compared to the 2024 New Year's Day holiday. The overall domestic travel market performance was in line with expectations, and the number of entrants and exits exceeded expectations. Looking ahead to 2026: On the demand side, the K-shaped recovery trend is still expected. At the same time, the low base effect of leading pan-mid-tier consumers is showing, and overseas demand is moving from pilot exploration to large-scale replication. On the supply side, normalizing supply innovation guarantees emotional value premiums. Policy guidance plays a positive role in promoting efficiency and cost optimization. Three main lines are recommended: first, gaming companies with high demand elasticity and leading brands of ready-to-drink products in the recovery of the economy; second, high-quality targets for leisure travel; and third, leaders with steady operations and growth in the procyclical sector.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Overall: The number of domestic tourists and travel spending met expectations, and the number of entrants and exits exceeded expectations

This year's New Year's Day holiday was 3 days in a row. Last year's New Year's Day holiday was only 1 day off on Wednesday, so this year's performance has a big advantage over the previous year. At the same time, combined with holiday competition, the actual travel time this year is longer or longer, which helps drive travel spending. According to estimates from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, during the three days of the New Year's Day holiday, there were 142 million domestic trips, an increase of 5.2% over the 2024 New Year's Day holiday. The total domestic travel expenses were 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% from the 2024 New Year's Day holiday, and the per capita consumption increased 1.1% over the 2024 New Year's Day holiday. The supply of winter specialties is abundant, and snow tours, winter vacations, and New Year's Eve tours are very popular. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the total number of people moving across regions during the New Year's Day holiday is expected to be 590 million, with an average daily increase of 19.5%. Among them, passenger traffic on railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation increased by 53.1%, 15.5%, 35.3%, and 10.5%, respectively. The passenger traffic volume of railways and civil aviation increased 10.1% and 15.3% year-on-year, respectively, compared with the 2024 New Year's Day holiday. The growth rate is excellent. According to flight manager data, the average domestic economy class ticket price for civil aviation during the New Year's Day holiday reached 684.6 yuan (tax included), down 8.3% from 24 years ago and 9.8% higher than 25 years ago. According to the State Administration of Immigration, border inspection agencies across the country guaranteed a total of 6.615 million Chinese and foreign personnel entering and leaving the country during the New Year's Day holiday, with an average of 2.05 million visitors per day (pre-holiday forecast surpassing 2.1 million), an increase of 28.6% over the previous year (22.4% expected before the holiday), and the number of people entering and leaving the country exceeded expectations.

Tax exemption: Strong recovery after customs closure, excellent holiday performance

According to Haikou Customs statistics, sales of 442,000 duty-free items on the outlying islands were monitored during the New Year's Day holiday, with 83,500 shoppers, up 60.6% year on year, and shopping amount of 712 million yuan, up 128.9% year on year. Compared with the 2024 New Year's Day holiday, the outlying islands duty-free sales, number of shoppers, and per capita consumption increased by 49.9%, 27.1%, and 18.0% respectively. The growth rate exceeded expectations. The policy dividends brought by the new outlying islands duty-free policy continued to be released. Major duty-free operators have launched diversified promotional activities to ignite consumer enthusiasm. Among them, China Free's stores joined forces with the “First Year of Customs Closure” theme to continue the year-end festival benefits and simultaneously launch the “Crazy Shopping Quintessence” to release discounts through multiple concessions.

Scenic area: The overall performance is good, and the mountain-type scenic area at the head is particularly impressive

Specifically, 1) Song Cheng Performing Arts: The number of asset-heavy holiday episodes was about 67, an increase of 52.3% over the same period in 2024, and an increase of 13.6% if Guangdong Ancient Stories were excluded. Among them, the Shanghai project showed the most significant year-on-year increase. 2) Huangshan: The holiday season received more than 75,000 visitors, an increase of about 76.5% over the same period in 2024. 3) Mount Emei: It received 126,200 visitors during the holidays, an increase of 20.9% over the same period in 2024. 4) Mount Jiuhua: The number of visitors received during the holidays is expected to increase by about 30% compared to the same period in 2024. 5) Changbai Mountain: The number of visitors received during the holidays increased by 40.8% compared to the same period in 2025.

OTA: The fraud effect led to significant growth in long-term travel, a high increase in orders before and after the holidays, and the maintenance of a high increase in inbound travel

The three-day holiday on New Year's Day combined with the “please take 3 days off and 8” holiday competition has boosted demand for long-term travel. According to Ctrip data, there was a significant increase in ticket orders departing on December 27, and hotel popularity increased by nearly 50% year-on-year on the first two days of the holiday season. On the Tongcheng Travel platform, reservations for major products such as air tickets, hotels, and homestays around the New Year's Day holiday showed a sharp rise in volume and price. There is a clear trend of domestic travel by self-driving, experiential travel, and quality upgrading. On the Tongcheng Travel platform, the popularity of reservations for products such as high-quality hotels, boutique homestays, and customized small groups during the New Year's Day holiday increased significantly. Reservations for scenes such as concerts, first snow climbing, holiday amusement parks, and snow and ice tours have increased. According to Flying Pig data, on New Year's Day on January 1, the number of domestic hotel reservations at Flying Pig surged 280% year on year, the number of reservations for amusement products at domestic destinations increased by more than 270% year on year, and the number of domestic car rental product reservations increased by more than 120% year on year. The boom in inbound tourism continues. On the Ctrip platform, during the New Year's Day holiday, ticket reservations increased 110% year-on-year, and reservations for inbound experiential amusement products increased more than 30 times. After the customs closure of Hainan, the “duty-free shopping+seaside vacation” model became a highlight for international tourists. Inbound orders from Sanya increased 170% year on year, and Wanning nearly quadrupled.

Hotels: Overnight growth is impressive, and there is still a gap in prices compared to New Year's Day in '24

According to Hotel Home, the average daily ADR for the three-day New Year's Day holiday was 204.3 yuan, an increase of 13.8% over the 2025 New Year's Day holiday and a decrease of 3.8% over the 2024 New Year's Day holiday. Comparatively, the average daily ADR for the 7 days before the 11th holiday in 2025 was +11.6% compared to the 11th holiday in '24. The average OCC on New Year's Day '26 was 59.4%, +2.9 pcts year over year 25, and +0.1 pct year over year 24; in comparison, the average OCC on the 11th in 2025 was -0.8 pct year on year. The average daily RevPAR was 121.44 yuan on New Year's Day in '26, +19.6% compared to '25, and -3.5% compared to '24; in comparison, the average RevPAR was +9.6% year-on-year in 2025. In terms of grade, economic resilience is superior to the middle and high-end. The average daily ADR for economy, mid-range, high-end, and luxury hotels during the 26th New Year's Day holiday was +13.6%/13.4%/12.1%/13.3% compared to 25 years, and -4.3%/-7.3%/-10.9% compared to 24; the average daily OCCTs for economic/mid-range and high-end hotels was +2.2/+4.3 pcts compared to 2025, respectively. As of the beginning of January 2026, the number of hotel rooms operating on the OTA platform increased by 5.7% year on year. The bank estimates that the average number of daily nights spent during the 2026 New Year's Day holiday increased 11% year over year 25, and an increase of 13.3% over the 2024 New Year's Day holiday.

Catering: Food and beverage consumption is active, and traffic is currently at its peak in many places

According to Meituan data, during the 2026 New Year's Day holiday, the overall traffic on the “Must-Eat List” list increased by 142% year-on-year. Among them, off-site traffic increased nearly 100% year over year, orders for “New Year's Eve” themed pre-sale packages on the platform increased 166% year over year, and reservations for restaurants focusing on exotic flavors all over the country on New Year's Eve increased 98% year over year. According to Haidilao ordering data, as of December 25, Haidilao stores across the country had received more than 400,000 orders for New Year's Eve on December 31 and January 1, 2026. Within those two days, Haidilao hot pot stores across the country had received more than 4.5 million customers. Among them, there was a concentrated influx of visitors after concerts in many places ended, and queuing in the evening and early morning hours was quite common, making it one of the important hosting scenes for “having another dinner after watching the performance” on New Year's Eve. The turnover rate of stores in some cities, such as Changsha and Chengdu, exceeded 10 times, and the number of consumers exceeded 1,000. By region, according to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, the restaurant industry monitored by Beijing during the New Year's Day holiday increased 4.6% year on year, with dinner increasing by 25.4% year on year. According to the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce, consumption in the restaurant industry increased by 18.9% year-on-year during the New Year's Day holiday. According to the Chengdu Municipal Bureau of Commerce, 23 key catering companies in the city achieved retail sales of 460 million yuan on the first two days of the New Year's Day holiday, an increase of 16.0% over the previous year.

Risk factors:

The decline in economic growth exceeded expectations, and the trend of consumption downgrade exceeded expectations; the risk of changes in domestic and outbound travel policies exceeding expectations; the risk of changes in exit visa processing policies exceeding expectations; the recovery of cross-border air capacity falling short of expectations; intensified market competition; and sharp exchange rate fluctuations, etc.