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How PulteGroup’s Q3 Beat on EPS but Softer Backlog At PulteGroup (PHM) Has Changed Its Investment Story

Simply Wall St · 5d ago
  • In the past quarter, PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) reported Q3 2025 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share above Wall Street expectations, even as sales slipped 1.6% year on year and backlog and EBITDA came in below forecasts.
  • This mix of outperformance on headline revenue and profit, alongside softer backlog and EBITDA, highlights a tension between current execution and visibility into future demand and profitability.
  • Next, we’ll explore how beating profit expectations but missing on backlog shapes PulteGroup’s existing investment narrative around margins and growth.

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PulteGroup Investment Narrative Recap

To own PulteGroup, you need to believe that its mix of broad geographic exposure and higher margin communities can still create value despite choppy housing demand. The latest quarter, with revenue and non GAAP EPS above expectations but softer backlog and EBITDA, does not materially change the near term picture: the key catalyst remains execution on margins, while the biggest risk is that weaker orders and backlog signal pressure on future revenue and profitability.

The most relevant recent announcement here is PulteGroup’s Q3 2025 report itself, which showed revenue of US$4,404.8 million and diluted EPS of US$2.96, both ahead of analyst forecasts, even as sales dipped year on year and backlog underwhelmed. That mix ties directly into the current catalyst of margin resilience and the risk that demand volatility, especially in more fragile regional markets, starts to pull future earnings lower if backlog softness persists.

Yet in a market where affordability is already stretched, investors should be aware of how quickly higher incentives or weaker backlog could...

Read the full narrative on PulteGroup (it's free!)

PulteGroup's narrative projects $17.7 billion revenue and $2.2 billion earnings by 2028. This implies a 0.0% yearly revenue decline rate and a $0.5 billion earnings decrease from $2.7 billion today.

Uncover how PulteGroup's forecasts yield a $139.31 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

PHM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
PHM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Eight members of the Simply Wall St Community value PulteGroup between about US$90 and US$154 per share, highlighting very different expectations. Set against the recent backlog miss, this range underlines why it can help to examine several views on how demand risks might influence future profitability and execution.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on PulteGroup - why the stock might be worth 24% less than the current price!

Build Your Own PulteGroup Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.