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Sidus Space (SIDU): Reassessing Valuation After SHIELD IDIQ Contract Win and Rapid Share Price Surge

Simply Wall St · 01/05 00:27

Sidus Space (SIDU) has jumped into the spotlight after being named one of the awardees on the Missile Defense Agency's massive SHIELD IDIQ contract, a long term platform for next generation defense tech.

See our latest analysis for Sidus Space.

The SHIELD announcement has clearly reset expectations, with Sidus Space posting a 1 month share price return of 484.5 percent and a 3 month share price return of 273.3 percent. However, its 3 year total shareholder return of negative 95.7 percent shows how early and volatile this recovery still is.

If this kind of contract win has you rethinking the whole defense theme, it could be worth exploring other aerospace and defense stocks that might be next in line for a rerating.

With shares up almost fivefold in a month yet still trading at less than half of the consensus price target, has Sidus Space genuinely been repriced for its SHIELD upside, or is the market already pricing in the next leg of growth?

Price to Sales of 42.1x: Is it justified?

Sidus Space closed at $4.33, yet on a price to sales basis it trades at levels that imply a far richer story than its current fundamentals.

Price to sales compares the company’s market value with its annual revenue, a common yardstick for early stage, unprofitable aerospace and defense names where earnings are negative.

At 42.1 times sales, investors are paying a substantial premium upfront for anticipated future growth and margin expansion, despite the company still being loss making. Compared to the estimated fair price to sales ratio of 0.2 times, the current multiple looks extreme and marks a level that the market could eventually move back toward if expectations cool.

That premium also stands out sharply against benchmarks. It towers above the broader US Aerospace and Defense industry average of 3.5 times sales and a peer average of 11 times. This suggests Sidus Space is priced as a high risk, high reward outlier rather than a typical sector player.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Sidus Space

Result: Price to Sales of 42.1x (OVERVALUED)

However, risks remain, including potential SHIELD contract delays and Sidus Space’s need to translate rapid revenue growth into sustainable profitability amid fierce industry competition.

Find out about the key risks to this Sidus Space narrative.

Build Your Own Sidus Space Narrative

If this perspective does not quite fit your view, or you prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh narrative in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Sidus Space research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.