WEBULL

Simply Good Foods (SMPL): Has a 50% Share Price Drop Created a Valuation Opportunity?

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) has quietly slipped over the past year, with the stock down about 50% even as revenue and net income continue to grow. That disconnect sets up an interesting value conversation.

See our latest analysis for Simply Good Foods.

At a share price of $19.56, the stock is still digesting a sharp reset, with a roughly 50% one year total shareholder return decline showing that sentiment has cooled even as fundamentals improve. Momentum for now looks more like a reset than a rebound.

If Simply Good Foods has you rethinking what steady growth should look like, it might be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot the next potential outlier.

With earnings still growing and the share price cut in half, Simply Good Foods now trades at a steep discount to analyst targets. The key question is whether this represents a genuine mispricing or whether the market is already factoring in slower growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 33.5% Undervalued

Compared with the last close at $19.56, the most widely followed narrative points to a meaningfully higher fair value anchored in earnings power and margins.

Productivity initiatives and synergy captures from the OWYN acquisition, expected to materialize in fiscal '26, are likely to improve gross margins and adjusted EBITDA, enhancing overall earnings growth potential.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest revenue growth, rising margins and a richer future earnings multiple combine into that upside case? The full narrative shows the math.

Result: Fair Value of $29.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, leadership changes and ongoing Atkins softness could still derail the margin story, especially if OWYN integration synergies extend beyond the 2026 timeframe.

Find out about the key risks to this Simply Good Foods narrative.

Build Your Own Simply Good Foods Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Simply Good Foods research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.