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Exxon Mobil (XOM): Assessing Whether Shares Remain Undervalued After Recent Gains

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Exxon Mobil (XOM) has quietly added to its gains, with the stock up about 2% over the past week and 5% over the past month, outpacing many large energy peers.

See our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil.

Zooming out, Exxon Mobil’s steady climb has been underpinned by resilient cash flows, modest revenue growth and ongoing lower carbon initiatives. The recent 7.4% 90 day share price return and robust five year total shareholder return suggest momentum is still very much on Exxon’s side.

If Exxon’s move has you rethinking your energy exposure, it could be worth scanning aerospace and defense stocks for other industrial names showing durable demand and attractive long term stories.

With shares hovering near record highs yet still trading at a steep discount to some intrinsic value estimates, the key question now is whether Exxon Mobil is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in years of future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 7.1% Undervalued

According to Helzur, Exxon Mobil’s current share price still lags their fair value estimate of 132 dollars, underscoring a thesis built on structural change rather than a simple oil bet.

This analysis concludes that Exxon Mobil (XOM) is viewed as an investment opportunity, with a fair value of 132.00 dollars per share, implying a 17.5% upside from the current price of 112.32. The thesis is not based on a speculative bet on higher oil prices, but on the company's fundamental transformation, operational excellence, and disciplined capital allocation.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how a slow growing revenue base can still justify a premium price tag? The narrative leans on durable margins, rising earnings power and a future valuation multiple more often seen in fast growing sectors. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions turn today’s cash flows into that upside target? Dive in to unpack the numbers driving this call.

Result: Fair Value of $132.0 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, faster than expected decarbonization policies or a prolonged downturn in oil and gas prices could undermine Exxon's cash flow durability and valuation upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Exxon Mobil narrative.

Build Your Own Exxon Mobil Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to pressure test the assumptions yourself, you can build a full Exxon Mobil narrative in just minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Exxon Mobil.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.