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Assessing Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Valuation After a Sharp 90-Day and One-Year Share Price Decline

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Acadia Healthcare Company (ACHC) has quietly slipped over the past year, and that drawdown is what makes the stock interesting now, especially as revenue and net income are still growing at a steady clip.

See our latest analysis for Acadia Healthcare Company.

Even after a steep 90 day share price return of around negative 46 percent and a one year total shareholder return of roughly negative 68 percent, Acadia’s steady revenue and net income growth indicate that sentiment may be overly pessimistic rather than fundamentally broken.

If Acadia’s move has you reassessing healthcare exposure, this could be a good moment to scout other opportunities across healthcare stocks and see how they compare on growth and resilience.

So after such a brutal derating, despite double digit net income growth and a sizable gap to analyst targets, is Acadia now trading below its true value, or is the market already discounting its future expansion?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 43.6% Undervalued

With Acadia Healthcare Company last closing at $14.29 versus a narrative fair value of $25.32, the current gap sets up a sharp valuation disconnect.

Lower than expected labor and premium cost inflation in 2025, combined with plans to moderate capital spending and reduce start up costs in 2026, set the stage for faster free cash flow generation and potential upward momentum in net earnings and available capital for reinvestment.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what powers that optimistic value gap? The narrative leans on accelerating earnings, expanding margins, and a future multiple that might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $25.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, operational missteps and ongoing legal investigations could erode margins and confidence, quickly closing that valuation gap if execution disappoints.

Find out about the key risks to this Acadia Healthcare Company narrative.

Build Your Own Acadia Healthcare Company Narrative

If this storyline does not quite fit your view, or you prefer hands on research, you can build a personalized narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Acadia Healthcare Company research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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Before you move on, put Simply Wall Street’s powerful screener to work so you do not miss the next wave of compelling opportunities beyond Acadia.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.