WEBULL

TC Energy (TSX:TRP) Valuation After TPH’s Top Midstream Rank and LNG Canada Tailwinds

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

TC Energy (TSX:TRP) just grabbed the top gas focused midstream slot from TPH Energy Research, and that recognition, tied to rising pipeline demand and LNG Canada momentum, has investors revisiting the stock.

See our latest analysis for TC Energy.

That sector recognition seems to be feeding into a steady re‑rating, with TC Energy’s CA$76.85 share price edging higher recently and a 1 year total shareholder return of 17.58 percent. This hints that momentum is quietly building around its pipeline and LNG leverage.

If TC Energy’s tailwinds have you thinking about what else could rerate, this is a good moment to explore aerospace and defense stocks as another pocket of evolving energy and security infrastructure plays.

With growing recognition, potential LNG-related catalysts, and a share price already close to analyst targets, the key question now is whether TC Energy still trades at a discount or whether the market has already priced in its next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 2.4% Undervalued

With TC Energy closing at CA$76.85 against a narrative fair value of roughly CA$78.77, the valuation gap is narrow but still leans positive.

Analysts expect earnings to reach CA$4.0 billion (and earnings per share of CA$4.01) by about September 2028, down from CA$4.2 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest earnings slippage still supports upside? The narrative relies on steady revenue expansion and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really stretch that valuation?

Result: Fair Value of $78.77 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative could falter if energy transition policies accelerate faster than expected, or if major projects face costly delays and regulatory setbacks.

Find out about the key risks to this TC Energy narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the narrative framework points to TC Energy as modestly undervalued, a simple earnings multiple tells a tougher story. At 20.6 times earnings versus a 15 times sector average and a fair ratio of 18.9 times, investors are already paying up, which narrows the margin for error if execution slips.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSX:TRP PE Ratio as at Jan 2026
TSX:TRP PE Ratio as at Jan 2026

Build Your Own TC Energy Narrative

If this view does not quite align with yours, or you want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a full narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TC Energy research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.