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Bitcoin Stuck At $90,000: 3 Scenarios To Watch In 2026

Benzinga · 5d ago

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues to struggle below $90,000, leaving investors uncertain whether 2026 will begin with prolonged consolidation or a decisive macro-driven move.

What Happened: According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has entered the new year stuck in a volatile range rather than a clearly defined bull or bear trend.

The on-chain analytics firm outlined three potential scenarios for 2026:

  • High probability — Range-bound ("twisted range"): Bitcoin trades broadly between $80,000 and $140,000, with $90,000–$120,000 acting as the core zone. This outcome would be driven by uneven capital flows, ETF-driven trading, and derivatives activity.
  • Medium probability — Macro shock: A recession or sharp risk-off event could trigger deleveraging and ETF outflows, pushing Bitcoin below $80,000 and potentially toward $50,000.
  • Low probability — Risk-on breakout: Early monetary easing and sustained ETF inflows could propel Bitcoin toward $120,000–$170,000, though this would require multiple favorable macro and liquidity conditions.

CryptoQuant noted that which scenario plays out will depend on exchange reserves, ETF flows, futures open interest and liquidations, and behavior across short- and long-term holders.

For now, a range-bound market remains the most likely baseline.

Also Read: Bitcoin Rallies Above $89,000 As Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Jump 3%

What's Next: While long-term supports such as ETF adoption and structural supply constraints remain intact, CryptoQuant said macro uncertainty, U.S. political dynamics, and derivatives-driven trading continue to cap sustained upside.

As a result, the near-term outlook remains neutral to slightly bearish due to a lack of strong confirmation signals.

Echoing a similar view, Stockmoney Lizards expects Bitcoin to range initially before eventually breaking out to a new all-time high later in the cycle.

He argues that as Bitcoin dominance peaks and capital begins to rotate, oversold altcoins could see relief rallies.

With multiple ETFs expanding market access, the infrastructure for broader exposure is growing—raising the odds that capital eventually spreads beyond Bitcoin.

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