CICC: Mainland e-auction results released, suggestions focus on industry leaders with a high share of wind power and outstanding trading, operation and maintenance capabilities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that by the end of 2025, CICC released a research report saying that by the end of 2025, the China Grid New Energy Cloud has disclosed a detailed list of mechanical power projects in 20 regions. The bank estimates that under the current bidding results, high-quality regional projects still have strong profitability, but the scale of release is relatively small, and the current policy is more supportive of wind power growth. It is recommended to focus on industry leaders with a high share of wind power and outstanding trading, operation and maintenance capabilities.

In terms of scale, the bank indicates that the increase in wind power is supported. The 2026 wind power incremental project has already exceeded 56 GW. Considering potential increases such as large bases and sea breezes, the bank expects to add 100 GW+ more support throughout the year, while the 2026 centralized photovoltaic increase will be about 49 GW. It is estimated that the 2025 to 2026 distributed mechanism power incremental project will be 10 to 15 GW. The annual increase in PV still needs to be observed at large bases and subsequent batches. Looking at the subregions, Xinjiang/Hebei/Ningxia together account for more than 53%. The bank believes or reflects government investment considerations and subsequent demand expectations, but electricity rates may rise in the short term. However, the increase in Shanghai/Beijing/Tianjin in 2026 is less than 1 GW, and there is still plenty of room for consumption.

In terms of electricity prices and profits, the overall electricity price results are better than market expectations, and high-quality regional projects are scarce. The bank estimates that capital IRR for projects in many places can reach 10% or more. With a stable consumption pattern, regional electricity prices and profits may remain at a good level, but the release capacity is small. However, the price of mechanized electricity in Gansu, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang (26 years of photovoltaics), and Shandong (25 years of photovoltaics) is discounted by more than 20% compared to the maximum bid limit and the benchmark price for coal combustion. The bank believes it may be due to pressure on regional consumption, the current low electricity prices for new energy transactions, and intense competition for incremental projects under bidding rules. At the current price level, it is difficult for conventional projects to make a profit. Individual projects require lower costs, better Internet access and consumption locations, and higher utilization hours.

According to the bank's statistics, the five major centralized photovoltaics and wind power accounts for 19% and 22% of the incremental projects. The top three groups in terms of resource acquisition are Huaneng International Power Co., Ltd. (00902), China Power Investment, and Datang New Energy (01798). The bank believes that the development focus of some groups may be a major new energy base, and that the ranking of new installations for each group's regular projects may be affected by the “15th Five-Year Plan” Group's installation strategy and the release of incremental resources from advantageous regions.