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Does Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s (TSE:TFPM) Weak Fundamentals Mean That The Stock Could Move In The Opposite Direction?

Simply Wall St · 12/30/2025 10:23

Triple Flag Precious Metals' (TSE:TFPM) stock up by 8.5% over the past three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak financials, as long-term fundamentals ultimately dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Triple Flag Precious Metals' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Triple Flag Precious Metals is:

10% = US$204m ÷ US$2.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2025).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every CA$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CA$0.10 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Triple Flag Precious Metals

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Triple Flag Precious Metals' Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

At first glance, Triple Flag Precious Metals' ROE doesn't look very promising. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 14%. As a result, Triple Flag Precious Metals' flat net income growth over the past five years doesn't come as a surprise given its lower ROE.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Triple Flag Precious Metals' reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 19% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth
TSX:TFPM Past Earnings Growth December 30th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for TFPM? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 57% (implying that the company keeps only 43% of its income) of its business to reinvest into its business), most of Triple Flag Precious Metals' profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the absence of growth in earnings.

In addition, Triple Flag Precious Metals has been paying dividends over a period of four years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 15% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the lower expected payout ratio.

Summary

In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Triple Flag Precious Metals. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.