The Coupang (CPNG.US) data breach claimed more than 1.1 billion US dollars, and Citi cut the target price and still called “buy”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citi recently released a research report on South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang (CPNG.US). Coupang launched a compensation plan of up to 1.7 trillion won (about 1.17 billion US dollars) due to the customer information data breach, covering 33.7 million affected customers, 50,000 won each. Citi lowered its 2025-2027 net profit forecast by 2%-18%, and lowered its 12-month target price from $35 to $28, but it still maintained a purchase rating.

Earlier, a data breach scandal broke out at Coupang, the largest online retailer in South Korea. The incident continued for several months from June 2025, and the impact was extremely widespread, affecting almost two-thirds of the Korean population. The leaked information included names, phone numbers, email addresses, and shipping details.

Its CEO, Park Dae-jun, has resigned due to this massive data breach. Coupang said Harold Rogers (Harold Rogers), the chief executive of its US parent company, will be the interim CEO.

Based on this large-scale customer information data breach, Coupang announced a compensation plan that will provide compensation of 50,000 won each to the 33.7 million customers affected by the data breach, totaling up to 1.7 trillion won, which is equivalent to 3% of the company's market value, 2% of enterprise value (EV), or 48% of the expected profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the 2026 fiscal year.

Monthly Active Users (MAU) /Total Commodity Transaction Value (GMV) Trend

After the data leak, according to WiseApp's data estimates: as of December 28, 2025 (MTD for that month up to now), the GMV of Coupang's e-commerce business increased 23% year on year, which is not much different from the 20% year-on-year growth rate from October to November 2025;

Although Coupang's 20% GMV year-on-year growth rate was slightly higher than Naver's 18% year-on-year during the period from October to November 2025, its 23% year-on-year growth rate as of December 28 was lower than Naver's 32% level over the same period;

In terms of the average weekly trend of daily active users (DAU), in the week of November 30 to December 6, 2025, Coupang's average weekly DAU increased 7% month-on-month; however, in the weeks of December 7, 14, and 21, weekly DAU declined 9%, 1%, and 3%, respectively. Despite weeks of month-on-month decline in DAU, Coupang has maintained a leading position in the Korean e-commerce industry for a long time

Fourth quarter 2025 results preview

The bank predicts that if expenses related to compensation are not included, Coupang will achieve revenue of 9.2 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase of 15% year on year; adjusted EBITDA of 482 million US dollars, an increase of 14% year on year, in line with market consensus;

The adjusted EBITDA for the product e-commerce business increased 33% year-on-year, mainly due to continuous optimization of operations and supply chains; developing businesses (mainly in Taiwan) lost US$237 million in adjusted EBITDA.

Target price reduced to $28

To reflect the more conservative non-operating project assumptions for FY2025 and the higher actual tax rate for the 2026-2027 fiscal year, Citi lowered its 12-month target price from $35 to $28 after lowering its net profit forecast for the 2025-2027 fiscal year by 2%-18%. Despite this, the bank maintained a “buy” rating.

The bank believes that as of December 2025, Coupang's stock price has been adjusted by 14% (starting with the company's disclosure of the number of affected customers raised to 33.7 million on November 29), which exceeds the scale of enterprise value (EV) dilution brought about by potential fines and compensation plans; at the same time, Coupang is expected to maintain a strong leadership position in the Korean e-commerce industry.